30 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion Gradski
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sutjeska 1-2 ML Vitebsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Sutjeska, 24% draw, 41% ML Vitebsk — fair odds of 2.86, 4.17 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts ML Vitebsk at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sutjeska4%Draw91%ML Vitebsk5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽A. Kontsevoy
46'
🔁D. Cleoniseout: B. Diabate
Slobodan Babić
54'
🔁V. Cavorout: P. Anicic
56'
🔁S. Babicout: B. Toskovic
57'
60'
🔁A. Mesarovicout: M. Mohammadi
60'
🔁R. Bosicout: S. Gnaka
🔁A. Scekicout: M. Camara
64'
🔁A. Boljevicout: A. Kecojevic
64'
Balša Tošković
65'
Andrija Ražnatović
66'
71'
🔁A. Kontsevoyout: M. Bulanov
81'
🔁I. Moskalenchikout: T. Ivanov
⚽B. Toskovicassist: M. Simun
84'
🔁B. Kopitovicout: R. Dedic
86'
90'
⚽B. Diabateassist: V. Gromyko

Line-ups

Sutjeska 4-3-3
  • 1V. GiljenG
  • 4M. VracarD
  • 15B. KopitovicD
  • 72A. Babic
  • 22A. RaznatovicD
  • 6D. HockoM
  • 19A. ScekicM
  • 77M. SimunM
  • 11V. CavorM
  • 55S. BabicF
  • 7A. BoljevicM
Substitutes
  • 12T. DurovicG
  • 23R. DubljevicG
  • 2A. GolubovicD
  • 3M. CamaraM
  • 5I. PajovicM
  • 9P. AnicicM
  • 10B. ToskovicF
  • 20J. CadjenovicM
  • 21D. CetkovicM
Coach: Milorad Pekovic
ML Vitebsk 4-3-3
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
  • 22Y. SkibskiyM
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 6K. GomanovD
  • 45I. MoskalenchikD
  • 55V. GromykoM
  • 15V. BocherovM
  • 27A. MesarovicM
  • 10D. CleoniseM
  • 80A. KontsevoyM
  • 12R. BosicM
Substitutes
  • 30P. ShcherbachenyaG
  • 3N. BaranokD
  • 5M. MohammadiD
  • 7T. IvanovF
  • 8S. GnakaM
  • 9B. DiabateF
  • 18V. ZhukM
  • 23S. BalanovichM
  • 99M. BulanovF
Coach: Mikhail Martinovich

Form going into Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk

Sutjeska

  • L0-3away to ML Vitebsk23 July 2026

ML Vitebsk

  • W3-0Sutjeska23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk

  • 23 July 2026ML Vitebsk 3–0 SutjeskaUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.