10 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Manchester United vs Tottenham Premier League prediction & result

Old Trafford, Manchester
Referee: Stuart Attwell, England
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Manchester United, 21% draw, 15% Tottenham — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Manchester United at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Manchester United98%Draw2%Tottenham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Conor Gallagher
🔁Amad Dialloout: Joshua Zirkzee
59'
🔁Leny Yoroout: Diogo Dalot
59'
🔁Youri Tielemansout: Carlos Baleba
59'
66'
🔁Lucas Bergvallout: Rodrigo Bentancur
66'
🔁Mohammed Kudusout: Omar Marmoush
⚽Bryan Mbeumoassist: Matheus Cunha
73'
74'
🔁Conor Gallagherout: James Maddison
74'
🔁Destiny Udogieout: Micky van de Ven
78'
Rodrigo Bentancur
78'
Jan Paul van Hecke
Luke Shaw
78'
Bruno Fernandes
84'
Lisandro Martínez
87'
89'
🔁Marcos Senesiout: Mateus Fernandes
90+2'
⚽Dominic Solankeassist: Sandro Tonali
🔁Matheus Cunhaout: Marcus Rashford
90+5'
🔁Luke Shawout: Ayden Heaven
90+5'
Diogo Dalot
90+6'
90+8'
Archie Gray

Match stats — Manchester United vs Tottenham

45%Possession55%
12Shots12
4On target3
4Corners4
0.88xG1.68

Goals against chances

Manchester United1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
Tottenham1 from 1.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. LammensG
  • 15L. YoroD
  • 5H. MaguireD
  • 6Lisandro MartínezD
  • 23L. ShawD
  • 18Y. TielemansM
  • 37K. MainooM
  • 16A. DialloM
  • 8Bruno FernandesM
  • 10Matheus CunhaM
  • 19B. MbeumoF
Substitutes
  • 17Andrey SantosM
  • 20C. BalebaM
  • 2Diogo DalotD
  • 12K. DarlowG
  • 26A. HeavenD
  • 31S. LaceyF
  • 7M. MountM
  • 9M. RashfordF
  • 11J. ZirkzeeF
Coach: M. Carrick
Tottenham 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. KinskýG
  • 14A. GrayD
  • 6J. van HeckeD
  • 5M. SenesiD
  • 13D. UdogieD
  • 15L. BergvallM
  • 16S. TonaliM
  • 20M. KudusM
  • 8C. GallagherM
  • 17SávioM
  • 19D. SolankeF
Substitutes
  • 4T. AdarabioyoD
  • 30R. BentancurM
  • 33B. DaviesD
  • 39M. DúbravkaG
  • 18Mateus FernandesM
  • 10J. MaddisonM
  • 22Omar MarmoushF
  • 11M. TelF
  • 37M. van de VenD
Coach: R. De Zerbi

Form going into Manchester United vs Tottenham

Manchester United

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Fulham20 September 2026
  • L0-1Manchester City13 September 2026
  • W4-0Sabah FA10 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Everton6 September 2026
  • W5-2Ipswich30 August 2026

Tottenham

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Aston Villa19 September 2026
  • D0-0Everton12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Nottingham Forest5 September 2026
  • L0-2Newcastle29 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Brentford22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Manchester United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Manchester United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Tottenham did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Tottenham failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Manchester United101541419-58
11Tottenham103341011-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Manchester United vs Tottenham

  • 7 February 2026Manchester United 2–0 TottenhamPremier League
  • 8 November 2025Tottenham 2–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
  • 21 May 2025Tottenham 1–0 Manchester UnitedUEFA Europa League
  • 16 February 2025Tottenham 1–0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
  • 19 December 2024Tottenham 4–3 Manchester UnitedLeague Cup

The full Manchester United vs Tottenham record →

Leading scorers: Manchester United and Tottenham

Manchester United

GoalsAssists

  • Bruno Fernandes42
  • B. Mbeumo40

Tottenham

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Manchester United and Tottenham drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Manchester United at 64% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Bryan Mbeumo 73' for Manchester United, Dominic Solanke 90+2' for Tottenham. Sent off: Rodrigo Bentancur (Tottenham) 78'. On expected goals it finished 0.88–1.68.

How the call on Manchester United v Tottenham has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 64% / 21% / 15%: the biggest move is Manchester United's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Manchester United win64%▲ +8
  2. Draw21%▼ −4
  3. Tottenham win15%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.