Sunderland
vs
Brentford
League Cup prediction
Our model says: Sunderland 0–1 Brentford
The model makes it 33% Sunderland, 28% draw, 39% Brentford — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.23, Brentford 1.39.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Brentford: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Sunderland are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Brighton.
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Aston Villa.
- Last 5 meetings: Brentford 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Brentford 1–1 Sunderland.
Chance to go through
League Cup Round of 16 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Sunderland33%
- Level after ninety minutes27%
- Brentford40%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Carabao Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sunderland vs Brentford
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brentford at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sunderland vs Brentford
Sunderland
- L0-2Brighton10 October 2026
- L3-5away to Manchester City20 September 2026
- W1-0AZ Alkmaar16 September 2026
- L0-2Arsenal12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
Brentford
- D2-2away to Aston Villa10 October 2026
- W3-0Chelsea18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bournemouth12 September 2026
- D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sunderland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sunderland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sunderland had two goals or fewer.
- Brentford went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Brentford scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brentford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Brentford
- 5 September 2026Brentford 1–1 SunderlandPremier League
- 7 January 2026Brentford 3–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 30 August 2025Sunderland 2–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 17 February 2018Sunderland 0–2 BrentfordChampionship
- 21 October 2017Brentford 3–3 SunderlandChampionship
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Brentford
Sunderland
No leading scorers listed yet.
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sunderland carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.99 for Brentford. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Sunderland and 1.39 for Brentford. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sunderland rate 0.88 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brentford rate 1.14 and 0.86.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brentford the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sunderland against 1.39 for Brentford. Sunderland's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.86 for Brentford.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sunderland at home · Brentford away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Sunderland 6, Brentford 6.
Sunderland score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Brentford have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sunderland
- at Coventry31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
Brentford
- vs Nottingham Forest31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Brighton8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Everton23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at Manchester United28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.