Carabao Cup predictions

7 matches ahead, from 27 October to 28 October, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Arsenal, 85% against Fleetwood Town. How the model works.

Tuesday 27 October — 2 matches

19:45 UTC Bradford vs Peterborough — model 49% / 30% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.33 · 4.76. Edge: Bradford
20:00 UTC Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal — model 4% / 11% / 85%, most likely 0-3, fair odds 25.00 · 9.09 · 1.18. One-sided: Arsenal

Wednesday 28 October — 5 matches

19:30 UTC Manchester City vs Brighton — model 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.17 · 5.00. Edge: Manchester City
19:45 UTC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa — model 39% / 26% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.85 · 2.86. Evenly matched
19:45 UTC Fulham vs Crystal Palace — model 43% / 29% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.45 · 3.57. Evenly matched
19:45 UTC Sunderland vs Brentford — model 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.57 · 2.56. Edge: Brentford
20:00 UTC Liverpool vs Chelsea — model 53% / 23% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.35 · 4.17. Evenly matched