Regular Season - 4 · 12 September 2026, 15:15 UTC

Strasbourg vs Monaco Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Strasbourg 1-1 Monaco.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Strasbourg, 28% draw, 32% Monaco — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Strasbourg 1.60, Monaco 1.32.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Strasbourg vs Monaco

59%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-0 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Strasbourg at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
🔁Anis Soubeirout: Matthis Abline
🔁Diogo Sousaout: Dario Essugo
45'
⚽Sadibou Sane (OG)
52'
🔁Jacobo Ortegaout: Conrad Harder
69'
71'
⚽Paris Brunnerassist: Lamine Camara
72'
🔁Stanis Idumboout: Mathys Detourbet
Pape Demba Diop
78'
🔁Giovanni Reynaout: Samir El-Mourabet
81'
🔁Sebastian Nanasiout: Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
82'
90'
Aleksandr Golovin
🔁Gessime Yassineout: Abdoul Karim Coulibaly
90+2'

Match stats — Strasbourg vs Monaco

44%Possession56%
13Shots12
2On target3
2Corners7

Line-ups

Strasbourg 4-3-3
  • 1F. JörgensenG
  • 16G. AntwiD
  • 4J. MitchellD
  • 6I. DoukouréD
  • 36OsoD
  • 80Gessime YassineM
  • 21P. DiopM
  • 10G. ReynaM
  • 23Diogo SousaF
  • 30J. OrtegaF
  • 11S. NanasiF
Substitutes
  • 12M. PiekutowskiG
  • 24L. HøgsbergD
  • 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
  • 28Tyrese NoubissieM
  • 14Dário EssugoM
  • 29S. El MourabetM
  • 45B. BrantlindM
  • 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
  • 40C. HarderF
Coach: Hugo Oliveira
Monaco 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. HrádeckýG
  • 2VandersonD
  • 72Sadibou SanéD
  • 15E. DierD
  • 20Flávio NazinhoD
  • 8L. CamaraM
  • 6D. ZakariaM
  • 46A. SoubeirM
  • 10A. GolovinM
  • 17S. Idumbo-MuzamboM
  • 29Paris Josua BrunnerF
Substitutes
  • 13C. Mawissa ElebiD
  • 16P. KöhnG
  • 7M. DetourbetF
  • 19Pape CabralM
  • 14M. BierethF
  • 47S. BenzahraM
  • 11M. AblineF
  • 22M. SalisuD
  • 49I. TouréM
Coach: Filipe Luís

Form going into Strasbourg vs Monaco

Strasbourg

  • W6-2away to Estac Troyes6 September 2026
  • W2-1Lens29 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Marseille21 August 2026

Monaco

  • W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
  • W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Le Havre23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Strasbourg421198+17
2Monaco431062+410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Strasbourg vs Monaco

  • 12 September 2026Strasbourg 1–1 MonacoLigue 1
  • 17 May 2026Strasbourg 5–4 MonacoLigue 1
  • 5 February 2026Strasbourg 3–1 MonacoCoupe de France
  • 31 August 2025Monaco 3–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 19 April 2025Monaco 0–0 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 9 November 2024Strasbourg 1–3 MonacoLigue 1

Leading scorers: Strasbourg and Monaco

Strasbourg

  • Gessime Yassine2 goals1 assists
  • S. Amo-Ameyaw2 goals
  • J. Ortega1 goals1 assists

Monaco

  • Paris Josua Brunner3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.60 goals for Strasbourg and 1.32 for Monaco; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Sadibou Sane 52' (Strasbourg), Paris Brunner 71' (Monaco).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Strasbourg the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for Strasbourg against 1.32 for Monaco. Strasbourg's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.85 for Monaco.