Lorient
vs
Toulouse
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Lorient, 29% draw, 32% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lorient 1.48, Toulouse 1.21.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Lorient vs Toulouse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lorient at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lorient vs Toulouse
Line-ups
- 38Y. MvogoG
- 20D. SyllaD
- 3M. TalbiD
- 32N. AdjeiD
- 77P. KatserisM
- 8N. CadiouM
- 72N. MbambaM
- 43K. KouassiM
- 33G. BernardeauM
- 17J. MakengoM
- 18I. BaldéF
- 19S. FayeF
- 2A. GeorgenD
- 21B. KamaraG
- 42M. KoneF
- 55N. ObaretinD
- 10I. JensenF
- 11T. Le BrisM
- 62A. AvomM
- 15A. TosinF
- 60M. NifloreG
- 22R. MessaliD
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 12C. TapéD
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 23C. CásseresM
- 9S. HidalgoM
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 37Y. AziziM
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 18M. AmougouM
- 1T. CollinG
- 94I. DialloD
- 6A. VossahM
- 19D. OdoguD
- 11S. OppongF
- 14N. SigurM
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 7Julián VignoloF
Form going into Lorient vs Toulouse
Lorient
- W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
- L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Nice22 August 2026
Toulouse
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
- L0-2Lyon22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lorient | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 17 | Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Toulouse
- 12 September 2026Lorient 2–2 ToulouseLigue 1
- 21 March 2026Toulouse 1–0 LorientLigue 1
- 9 November 2025Lorient 1–1 ToulouseLigue 1
- 28 April 2024Lorient 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
- 3 December 2023Toulouse 1–1 LorientLigue 1
- 23 April 2023Lorient 0–1 ToulouseLigue 1
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.48 goals for Lorient and 1.21 for Toulouse; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ibrahima Balde 37' (Lorient), Noah Mbamba 39' (Lorient), Casper Tengstedt 48' (Toulouse), Thomas Jorgensen 68' (Toulouse).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lorient the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lorient against 1.21 for Toulouse. Lorient's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.99 for Toulouse.