Lorient vs Toulouse Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Lorient, 30% draw, 33% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lorient at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lorient vs Toulouse
Line-ups
- 38Y. MvogoG
- 20D. SyllaD
- 3M. TalbiD
- 32N. AdjeiD
- 77P. KatserisM
- 8N. CadiouM
- 72N. MbambaM
- 43K. KouassiM
- 33G. BernardeauM
- 17J. MakengoM
- 18I. BaldéF
- 19S. FayeF
- 2A. GeorgenD
- 21B. KamaraG
- 42M. KoneF
- 55N. ObaretinD
- 10I. JensenF
- 11T. Le BrisM
- 62A. AvomM
- 15A. TosinF
- 60M. NifloreG
- 22R. MessaliD
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 12C. TapéD
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 23C. CásseresM
- 9S. HidalgoM
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 37Y. AziziM
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 18M. AmougouM
- 1T. CollinG
- 94I. DialloD
- 6A. VossahM
- 19D. OdoguD
- 11S. OppongF
- 14N. SigurM
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 7Julián VignoloF
Form going into Lorient vs Toulouse
Lorient
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
- L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Nice22 August 2026
Toulouse
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
- L0-2Lyon22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Toulouse
- 21 March 2026Toulouse 1–0 LorientLigue 1
- 9 November 2025Lorient 1–1 ToulouseLigue 1
- 28 April 2024Lorient 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
- 3 December 2023Toulouse 1–1 LorientLigue 1
- 23 April 2023Lorient 0–1 ToulouseLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lorient and Toulouse
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lorient and Toulouse drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lorient at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ibrahima Balde 37' for Lorient, Noah Mbamba 39' for Lorient, Casper Tengstedt 48' for Toulouse, Thomas Jorgensen 68' for Toulouse.
How the call on Lorient v Toulouse has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is Lorient's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Lorient win37%▼ −2
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Toulouse win33%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.