Le Havre
vs
Angers
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Le Havre 0-0 Angers.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Le Havre, 31% draw, 31% Angers — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Le Havre 1.30, Angers 1.05.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Le Havre vs Angers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Havre at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Le Havre vs Angers
Line-ups
- 93G. GallonG
- 12E. JelertD
- 15A. SekoD
- 5A. ToubaD
- 20D. OuziadD
- 17K. MizutaM
- 26S. EbonogM
- 7A. RichardsonM
- 30S. NakamuraF
- 9J. MajaF
- 25M. SamattaF
- 24G. ZohouriM
- 97M. NdiayeD
- 78D. MosengoM
- 27E. Koffi VinetteF
- 38R. FofanaF
- 44I. BounebM
- 23V. SassoD
- 40Alex TeixeiraG
- 33Hakim DongopandjiF
- 1Anthony LopesG
- 2C. ArcusD
- 4O. CamaraD
- 21J. LefortD
- 17J. KaluluD
- 14Y. BelkhdimM
- 8B. van den BoomenM
- 18J. AllevinahM
- 36Bane DiattaM
- 10A. SbaïM
- 19A. El OuazzaniF
- 16M. ZingaG
- 26A. BermontM
- 24E. BiumlaM
- 11Djibirin HarounaF
- 20Marius LouërD
- 7U. SimbakoliF
- 6L. MoutonM
- 9P. PeterF
- 27L. Rao-LisoaD
Form going into Le Havre vs Angers
Le Havre
- L1-2Stade Brestois 295 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyon29 August 2026
- L0-1Monaco23 August 2026
Angers
- L1-2Rennes6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Auxerre29 August 2026
- L0-2Lille23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 11 | Angers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Angers
- 12 September 2026Le Havre 0–0 AngersLigue 1
- 18 April 2026Angers 1–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- 4 January 2026Le Havre 2–1 AngersLigue 1
- 26 July 2025Le Havre 0–0 AngersFriendlies Clubs
- 2 February 2025Angers 1–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- 1 December 2024Le Havre 0–1 AngersLigue 1
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Le Havre carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.8 for Angers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Le Havre and 1.05 for Angers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Le Havre rate 0.81 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Angers rate 0.89 and 0.99.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Angers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Havre the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Le Havre against 1.05 for Angers. Le Havre's attack/defence rating is 0.81/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.99 for Angers.