Regular Season - 4 · 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Auxerre vs Nice Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Auxerre 1-0 Nice.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Auxerre, 30% draw, 30% Nice — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Auxerre 1.40, Nice 1.07.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Auxerre vs Nice

50%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 11%0-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Auxerre at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Auxerre96%Draw4%Nice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kevin Danois
44'
🔁Remy Labeau Lascaryout: Romain Faivre
71'
72'
🔁Niels Nkounkouout: Ali Abdi
74'
Djibril Coulibaly
⚽Cameron Archerassist: Christ Makosso
74'
🔁Danny Namasoout: Naouirou Ahamada
81'
🔁Arthur Piedfortout: Pierre Ekwah
82'
86'
🔁Sepe Elye Wahiout: Sofiane Diop
86'
🔁Mohamed Amouraout: Nathan Ngoumou
86'
🔁Axel Witselout: Hicham Boudaoui
86'
🔁Mohamed Abdelmoneimout: Isak Jansson
🔁Cameron Archerout: Rayan Mandengue
87'

Match stats — Auxerre vs Nice

32%Possession68%
11Shots12
7On target4
3Corners8

Line-ups

Auxerre 3-4-3
  • 23M. DiopG
  • 15C. MakossoD
  • 4A. TuanzebeD
  • 92C. AkpaD
  • 27L. SyM
  • 46A. PiedfortM
  • 5K. DanoisM
  • 22F. OppegårdM
  • 10D. NamasoF
  • 9C. ArcherF
  • 3R. Labeau LascaryF
Substitutes
  • 35E. LegrosD
  • 1P. NardiG
  • 77Aristide ZossouM
  • 8N. AhamadaM
  • 20S. DiomandéD
  • 34L. DioubateM
  • 17P. EkwahM
  • 21R. FaivreM
  • 32R. MandengueD
Coach: W. Still
Nice 3-4-2-1
  • 23Y. DioufG
  • 5Mohamed AbdelmonemD
  • 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
  • 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
  • 92J. ClaussM
  • 39D. CoulibalyM
  • 28A. WitselM
  • 27N. NkounkouM
  • 7G. HeinM
  • 11E. WahiM
  • 9M. AmouraF
Substitutes
  • 87E. PereiraM
  • 6H. BoudaouiM
  • 77T. BoulhendiG
  • 38A. CamaraM
  • 10S. DiopM
  • 2A. AbdiD
  • 21I. JanssonF
  • 41D. MoranaF
  • 29N. NgoumouF
Coach: O. Pantaloni

Form going into Auxerre vs Nice

Auxerre

  • L1-3away to Lyon4 September 2026
  • L1-3Angers29 August 2026
  • L2-5away to Lens22 August 2026

Nice

  • D1-1Le Mans5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Paris FC30 August 2026
  • D0-0Lorient22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Auxerre4103511-63
18Nice402215-42

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Nice

  • 12 September 2026Auxerre 1–0 NiceLigue 1
  • 10 May 2026Auxerre 2–1 NiceLigue 1
  • 23 August 2025Nice 3–1 AuxerreLigue 1
  • 14 March 2025Nice 1–1 AuxerreLigue 1
  • 18 August 2024Auxerre 2–1 NiceLigue 1
  • 6 January 2024Nice 0–0 AuxerreCoupe de France

Leading scorers: Auxerre and Nice

Auxerre

  • C. Archer2 goals

Nice

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.40 goals for Auxerre and 1.07 for Nice; the game produced 1 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Cameron Archer 74' (Auxerre).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Auxerre the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Auxerre against 1.07 for Nice. Auxerre's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.04 for Nice.