Paris FC
vs
Lyon
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Paris FC 0-0 Lyon.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Paris FC, 28% draw, 23% Lyon — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Paris FC 1.81, Lyon 0.91.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Paris FC vs Lyon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris FC at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Paris FC vs Lyon
Line-ups
- 1K. TrappG
- 31S. CherguiD
- 42D. CoppolaD
- 14H. TraoréD
- 17A. CamaraM
- 20M. LopezM
- 33P. Lees-MelouM
- 15L. KoleoshoM
- 10I. KebbalM
- 7P. PagisM
- 9L. SinayokoF
- 93J. IkonéF
- 25Y. KoréD
- 4V. MarchettiM
- 23R. MatondoM
- 5M. MbowD
- 16O. NkambadioG
- 27M. SimonF
- 18O. SissokoF
- 8E. ZabiM
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 19M. NiakhatéD
- 16AbnerD
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 23T. MortonM
- 7E. NuamahM
- 10P. ŠulcM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 17L. OpendaF
- 99N. NarteyM
- 11Keito NakamuraF
- 3N. TagliaficoD
- 6T. TessmannM
- 40R. DescampsG
- 21R. KluivertD
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 22Clinton MataD
- 18K. MerahM
Form going into Paris FC vs Lyon
Paris FC
- W3-2away to Marseille6 September 2026
- W3-0Nice30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Estac Troyes22 August 2026
Lyon
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Paris FC vs Lyon
- 12 September 2026Paris FC 0–0 LyonLigue 1
- 8 March 2026Lyon 1–1 Paris FCLigue 1
- 29 October 2025Paris FC 3–3 LyonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Paris FC and Lyon
Paris FC
- L. Sinayoko4 goals
Lyon
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Paris FC carry a model rating of 7.01 against 6.81 for Lyon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Paris FC and 0.91 for Lyon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paris FC rate 1.10 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lyon rate 0.94 and 1.01.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lyon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris FC the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Paris FC against 0.91 for Lyon. Paris FC's attack/defence rating is 1.1/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.01 for Lyon.