10 October 2026, 14:15 UTC

FC Botosani vs Uta Arad Liga I prediction & result

Stadionul Municipal
Referee: Szabolcs Kovacs
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Botosani 2-0 Uta Arad.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% FC Botosani, 28% draw, 29% Uta Arad — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Botosani at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Botosani99%Draw1%Uta Arad0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Sebastian Mailat
10'
⚽Sebastian Mailat (pen)
11'
⚽Lucas de Vega Lima
17'
25'
Denis Alberto Taroi
27'
🔁Denis Alberto Taroiout: Marinos Tzionis
•Andrei Dumiter
45+8'
45'
🔁Antoni Ivanovout: Jayson Papeau
Lucas de Vega Lima
56'
65'
Sota Mino
69'
Alexandru Benga
🔁Sebastian Mailatout: Mykola Kovtalyuk
71'
🔁Zoran Mitrovout: Ştefan Bodişteanu
71'
🔁Lucas de Vega Limaout: Charles Petro
72'
72'
🔁Samuel Gueuletteout: Dmitro Pospelov
79'
🔁robert badescuout: Roland Remus Patrik Sabau
79'
🔁Marius Comanout: Ismet Sinani
🔁Enriko Papaout: Mihai Bordeianu
81'
Ştefan Bodişteanu
81'
🔁Hervin Ongendaout: Alexandru Tiganasu
85'
90+1'
Dmitro Pospelov

Match stats — FC Botosani vs Uta Arad

54%Possession46%
20Shots12
9On target3
7Corners9
4.11xG0.7

Goals against chances

FC Botosani2 from 4.11 xGless than the chances were worth
Uta Arad0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Botosani 4-3-3
  • 99G. AnestisG
  • 2B. BayeyeD
  • 23D. DiawD
  • 4A. MironD
  • 73N. IlașD
  • 21Lucas de VegaM
  • 67E. PapaM
  • 26H. OngendaM
  • 11Z. MitrovF
  • 41A. DumiterF
  • 7S. MailatF
Substitutes
  • 37M. BordeianuM
  • 77Gama GabrielM
  • 27Ionuț Cristian GurăuG
  • 8R. IdowuM
  • 22M. KovtalyukF
  • 9J. MarkovićF
  • 3C. PetroD
  • 90Mario PredaF
  • 44R. SadikuD
Coach: M. Croitoru
Uta Arad 4-2-3-1
  • 1Márcio RosaG
  • 14S. GueuletteD
  • 4A. BengaD
  • 22R. BădescuD
  • 3S. AlomeroviсD
  • 6A. IvanovM
  • 5S. MinoM
  • 11H. AbdallahM
  • 8A. RomanM
  • 20Denis TaroiM
  • 9M. ComanF
Substitutes
  • 10M. TzionisF
  • 7Ismet SinaniF
  • 60D. PospelovD
  • 17Roland Remus Patrik SabauD
  • 77J. PapeauM
  • 42O. El SawyM
  • 33A. GorceaG
Coach: A. Mihalcea

Form going into FC Botosani vs Uta Arad

FC Botosani

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to CFR 1907 Cluj19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Arges Pitesti13 September 2026
  • W5-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Farul Constanta30 August 2026
  • W1-0Csikszereda24 August 2026

Uta Arad

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe18 September 2026
  • L2-4away to Farul Constanta11 September 2026
  • W5-1Csikszereda5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to FCSB30 August 2026
  • D0-0Corvinul Hunedoara22 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Botosani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Uta Arad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12FC Botosani153661920-115
10Uta Arad155371620-418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Botosani vs Uta Arad

  • 11 April 2026Uta Arad 3–1 FC BotosaniLiga I
  • 15 February 2026Uta Arad 2–1 FC BotosaniLiga I
  • 6 October 2025FC Botosani 2–1 Uta AradLiga I
  • 5 April 2025Uta Arad 1–0 FC BotosaniLiga I
  • 23 December 2024Uta Arad 2–0 FC BotosaniLiga I

Leading scorers: FC Botosani and Uta Arad

FC Botosani

GoalsAssists

  • A. Dumiter70

Uta Arad

GoalsAssists

  • M. Coman50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Botosani beat Uta Arad 2–0. The model had made a win for FC Botosani its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Sebastian Mailat (penalty) 11' for FC Botosani, Lucas de Vega Lima 17' for FC Botosani. On expected goals it finished 4.11–0.70.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Botosani a 14.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.8% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 20.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.8%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.

For Uta Arad the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.1% going in: 6.2% after a win, 10.9% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.1%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Botosani v Uta Arad has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is FC Botosani's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FC Botosani win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Uta Arad win29%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.