FC Botosani
vs
Uta Arad
Liga I prediction
Our model says: FC Botosani 1–0 Uta Arad
The model makes it 41% FC Botosani, 29% draw, 30% Uta Arad — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Botosani 1.57, Uta Arad 1.18.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Botosani vs Uta Arad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Botosani at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Botosani vs Uta Arad
FC Botosani
- L1-3away to CFR 1907 Cluj19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arges Pitesti13 September 2026
- W5-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Farul Constanta30 August 2026
- W1-0Csikszereda24 August 2026
Uta Arad
- W1-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe18 September 2026
- L2-4away to Farul Constanta11 September 2026
- W5-1Csikszereda5 September 2026
- W3-1away to FCSB30 August 2026
- D0-0Corvinul Hunedoara22 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Botosani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Uta Arad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FC Botosani | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Botosani vs Uta Arad
- 11 April 2026Uta Arad 3–1 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 15 February 2026Uta Arad 2–1 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 6 October 2025FC Botosani 2–1 Uta AradLiga I
- 5 April 2025Uta Arad 1–0 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 23 December 2024Uta Arad 2–0 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 17 August 2024FC Botosani 1–0 Uta AradLiga I
Leading scorers: FC Botosani and Uta Arad
FC Botosani
- A. Dumiter6 goals
Uta Arad
- M. Coman4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Botosani carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.37 for Uta Arad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for FC Botosani and 1.18 for Uta Arad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Botosani rate 0.63 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Uta Arad rate 0.64 and 1.66.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Uta Arad, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Botosani a 0.1% chance of the title and Uta Arad 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Botosani the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FC Botosani against 1.18 for Uta Arad. FC Botosani's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.66 for Uta Arad.