FCSB
vs
Oțelul
Liga I prediction
Our model says: FCSB 2–1 Oțelul
The model makes it 46% FCSB, 27% draw, 27% Oțelul — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FCSB 1.97, Oțelul 1.22.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FCSB vs Oțelul
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FCSB at 46% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FCSB vs Oțelul
FCSB
- L0-5away to Universitatea Craiova19 September 2026
- D2-2Petrolul Ploiesti14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti5 September 2026
- L1-3Uta Arad30 August 2026
- L0-1away to CFR 1907 Cluj23 August 2026
Oțelul
- L2-3Corvinul Hunedoara21 September 2026
- L0-3away to Universitatea Cluj14 September 2026
- L0-1Rapid6 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Voluntari28 August 2026
- W1-0Arges Pitesti24 August 2026
What these results say
- FCSB did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FCSB conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FCSB had three goals or more.
- Oțelul failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FCSB | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Oțelul | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FCSB vs Oțelul
- 11 April 2026FCSB 4–0 OțelulLiga I
- 8 February 2026Oțelul 1–4 FCSBLiga I
- 28 September 2025FCSB 1–0 OțelulLiga I
- 2 December 2024Oțelul 1–4 FCSBLiga I
- 26 July 2024FCSB 0–2 OțelulLiga I
- 3 December 2023FCSB 0–2 OțelulLiga I
Leading scorers: FCSB and Oțelul
FCSB
- D. Bîrligea3 goals
Oțelul
- Patrick4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FCSB carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.32 for Oțelul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for FCSB and 1.22 for Oțelul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FCSB rate 0.73 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oțelul rate 0.62 and 1.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FCSB a 0.2% chance of the title and Oțelul 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FCSB the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for FCSB against 1.22 for Oțelul. FCSB's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.8 for Oțelul.