10 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

FCSB vs Oțelul Liga I prediction & result

Arena Nationala, Bucharest
Referee: George Catalin Roman, Romania
Full time1 – 0

Final score: FCSB 1-0 Oțelul.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% FCSB, 25% draw, 25% Oțelul — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FCSB at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FCSB97%Draw3%Oțelul0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Habib Sylla
Ofri Arad
14'
Valentin Crețu
45'
47'
Denis Bordun
53'
•Habib Sylla
54'
Habib Sylla
54'
🔁Ze Turboout: Dominick Zator
54'
🔁Denis Bordunout: Alexandru Viorel Bălănică
🔁Ofri Aradout: Joao Paulo Fernandes
56'
🔁Paul Arnold Garitaout: Alexandru Stoian
57'
59'
Giannis Christopoulos
⚽Alexandru Stoianassist: Valentin Crețu
65'
🔁Meriton Korenicaout: Dennis Politic
78'
🔁Juri Cisottiout: Eddy Gnahoré
78'
80'
🔁Andrei Ciobanuout: João Paulino
90+1'
🔁Pedro Nunoout: Dan Cristian Neicu
90+1'
🔁Rafael Britoout: Dragos Andrei Aftene

Match stats — FCSB vs Oțelul

66%Possession34%
21Shots10
4On target1
6Corners3
1.39xG0.64

Goals against chances

FCSB1 from 1.39 xGabout what the chances were worth
Oțelul0 from 0.64 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FCSB 4-2-3-1
  • 32Ș. TârnovanuG
  • 2V. CrețuD
  • 5J. DawaD
  • 3André DuarteD
  • 4Ricardo PadurariuD
  • 73K. MuharM
  • 15O. AradM
  • 11D. MiculescuM
  • 31J. CisottiM
  • 7M. KorenicaM
  • 14A. GaritaF
Substitutes
  • 19D. AvramF
  • 20D. PoliticF
  • 13M. PopaG
  • 33R. RadunovićD
  • 77L. StancuM
  • 90A. StoianF
  • 22M. TomaM
  • 8E. GnahoréM
  • 21D. BatubinsikaD
Coach: L. Reghecampf
Oțelul 4-3-3
  • 1C. Dur-BozoancăG
  • 5H. SyllaD
  • 3G. ChristopoulosD
  • 6P. IacobD
  • 28Miguel SilvaD
  • 17A. CiobanuM
  • 8Rafael BritoM
  • 27Pedro NunoM
  • 24D. BordunF
  • 11Zé TurboF
  • 9PatrickF
Substitutes
  • 44D. ZatorD
  • 20R. OlteanuM
  • 15Mehmet TitizF
  • 16D. NeicuD
  • 7Paulino JoaoF
  • 30M. FrunzăM
  • 13M. ContraG
  • 77A. BalanicaF
  • 18D. AfteneM
Coach: Rui Duarte

Form going into FCSB vs Oțelul

FCSB

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5away to Universitatea Craiova19 September 2026
  • D2-2Petrolul Ploiesti14 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti5 September 2026
  • L1-3Uta Arad30 August 2026
  • L0-1away to CFR 1907 Cluj23 August 2026

Oțelul

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Corvinul Hunedoara21 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Universitatea Cluj14 September 2026
  • L0-1Rapid6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Voluntari28 August 2026
  • W1-0Arges Pitesti24 August 2026

What these results say

  • FCSB did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • FCSB conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FCSB had three goals or more.
  • Oțelul failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Oțelul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FCSB156362021-121
14Oțelul152761723-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FCSB vs Oțelul

  • 11 April 2026FCSB 4–0 OțelulLiga I
  • 8 February 2026Oțelul 1–4 FCSBLiga I
  • 28 September 2025FCSB 1–0 OțelulLiga I
  • 2 December 2024Oțelul 1–4 FCSBLiga I
  • 26 July 2024FCSB 0–2 OțelulLiga I

Leading scorers: FCSB and Oțelul

FCSB

No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Oțelul

GoalsAssists

  • Patrick40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FCSB beat Oțelul 1–0. The model had made a win for FCSB its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Alexandru Stoian 65' for FCSB. Sent off: Habib Sylla (Oțelul) 54'. On expected goals it finished 1.39–0.64.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FCSB a 7.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.5% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 11.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.5%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

For Oțelul the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.2% after a win, 21.6% after a draw, 26.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 26.1%.

Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FCSB v Oțelul has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is FCSB's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. FCSB win50%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Oțelul win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.