Stenhousemuir
vs
Raith Rovers
Championship prediction
Our model says: Stenhousemuir 1–0 Raith Rovers
The model makes it 49% Stenhousemuir, 28% draw, 23% Raith Rovers — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.72, Raith Rovers 0.83.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Stenhousemuir are top on 22 points from 8 games; Raith Rovers are 2nd on 14 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Stenhousemuir are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Ayr Utd.
- Raith Rovers have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Livingston.
- Last 5 meetings: Raith Rovers 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Raith Rovers 1–1 Stenhousemuir.
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stenhousemuir at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers
Stenhousemuir
- W1-0away to Ayr Utd25 September 2026
- W1-0Arbroath19 September 2026
- W1-0Partick15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Livingston4 September 2026
- W3-1Inverness CT29 August 2026
Raith Rovers
- L0-2Livingston25 September 2026
- D0-0away to Partick19 September 2026
- W4-0Arbroath12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Inverness CT5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dunfermline28 August 2026
What these results say
- Stenhousemuir won every one of these 5 matches.
- Stenhousemuir scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stenhousemuir kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Raith Rovers had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers
- 1 August 2026Raith Rovers 1–1 StenhousemuirChampionship
- 6 April 2019Stenhousemuir 1–1 Raith RoversLeague One
- 5 January 2019Raith Rovers 5–1 StenhousemuirLeague One
- 17 November 2018Stenhousemuir 1–3 Raith RoversLeague One
- 11 August 2018Raith Rovers 2–0 StenhousemuirLeague One
The two sides
Stenhousemuir carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.14 for Raith Rovers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Stenhousemuir and 0.83 for Raith Rovers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stenhousemuir rate 0.51 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raith Rovers rate 0.50 and 2.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stenhousemuir a 61% chance of the title and Raith Rovers 4.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stenhousemuir the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Stenhousemuir against 0.83 for Raith Rovers. Stenhousemuir's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.07 for Raith Rovers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stenhousemuir at home · Raith Rovers away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Stenhousemuir 8, Raith Rovers 8.
Stenhousemuir score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Raith Rovers have let in 2 there.
Raith Rovers score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Stenhousemuir have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stenhousemuir
- at Partick24 Oct · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Dunfermline27 Oct · Championshipwin 42%
- vs Livingston30 Oct · Championshipwin 46%
- at Morton7 Nov · Championshipwin 53%
Raith Rovers
- vs Inverness CT24 Oct · Championshipwin 45%
- at Arbroath31 Oct · Championshipwin 25%
- vs Dunfermline6 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.