Coventry
vs
Newcastle
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Coventry 1–2 Newcastle
The model makes it 27% Coventry, 28% draw, 45% Newcastle — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Coventry 1.10, Newcastle 1.72.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Coventry are 18th on 3 points from 5 games; Newcastle are 9th on 8 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Coventry have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Nottingham Forest.
- Newcastle have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Hull City.
All Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Coventry vs Newcastle
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newcastle at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Coventry vs Newcastle
Coventry
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest19 September 2026
- L0-5Brighton13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Manchester City5 September 2026
- L0-1Hull City29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arsenal21 August 2026
Newcastle
- W2-1Hull City19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
- D2-2Liverpool23 August 2026
What these results say
- Coventry failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Coventry failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Coventry conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newcastle had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Coventry and Newcastle
Coventry
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Newcastle
- J. Willock2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Coventry carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.88 for Newcastle. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Coventry and 1.72 for Newcastle. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Coventry rate 0.63 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newcastle rate 1.15 and 1.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newcastle the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Coventry against 1.72 for Newcastle. Coventry's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/1.09 for Newcastle.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Coventry at home · Newcastle away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Coventry 5, Newcastle 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Coventry
- at Tottenham19 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Fulham24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Sunderland31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Everton6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Crystal Palace21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Newcastle
- vs Aston Villa17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Crystal Palace25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Everton2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Fulham7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Arsenal21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.