Lille
vs
Estac Troyes
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Lille, 28% draw, 23% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Lille 1.77, Estac Troyes 0.83.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Lille vs Estac Troyes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lille at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lille vs Estac Troyes
Line-ups
- 1B. ÖzerG
- 22Tiago SantosD
- 3N. NgoyD
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 15R. PerraudD
- 17N. MukauM
- 6N. BentalebM
- 7D. BakwaM
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 19B. ÖnalM
- 18A. UedaF
- 21B. AndréM
- 12O. GillG
- 9O. GiroudF
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 8E. MbappéM
- 23T. NianzouD
- 28G. PerrinF
- 11O. SahraouiF
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 33P. BeachG
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 4M. DiazD
- 3A. OuzenadjiD
- 8M. DiopM
- 29D. KarimM
- 7K. DiawaraM
- 17A. MilleM
- 22H. PicardM
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 36I. SoukounaM
- 41Enisio CarneiroD
- 31Noah DonkorD
- 11I. GomisM
- 40H. KonatéG
- 39Y. KoneF
- 23T. NkadaF
- 20R. RipartF
- 34Lassana SimakhaD
Form going into Lille vs Estac Troyes
Lille
- W1-0away to Toulouse3 September 2026
- D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Angers23 August 2026
Estac Troyes
- L2-6Strasbourg6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026
- D0-0Paris FC22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 12 | Estac Troyes | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lille vs Estac Troyes
- 13 September 2026Lille 2–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 3 June 2023Estac Troyes 1–1 LilleLigue 1
- 15 January 2023Lille 5–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 8 January 2023Lille 2–0 Estac TroyesCoupe de France
- 1 May 2022Estac Troyes 3–0 LilleLigue 1
- 4 December 2021Lille 2–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lille and Estac Troyes
Lille
- Tiago Santos2 goals
- O. Giroud1 goals2 assists
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.77 goals for Lille and 0.83 for Estac Troyes; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Tiago Santos 18' (Lille), Ethan Mbappe 90' (Lille).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lille the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lille against 0.83 for Estac Troyes. Lille's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.18 for Estac Troyes.