Lille vs Estac Troyes Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Lille, 28% draw, 25% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lille at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lille vs Estac Troyes
Line-ups
- 1B. ÖzerG
- 22Tiago SantosD
- 3N. NgoyD
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 15R. PerraudD
- 17N. MukauM
- 6N. BentalebM
- 7D. BakwaM
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 19B. ÖnalM
- 18A. UedaF
- 21B. AndréM
- 12O. GillG
- 9O. GiroudF
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 8E. MbappéM
- 23T. NianzouD
- 28G. PerrinF
- 11O. SahraouiF
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 33P. BeachG
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 4M. DiazD
- 3A. OuzenadjiD
- 8M. DiopM
- 29D. KarimM
- 7K. DiawaraM
- 17A. MilleM
- 22H. PicardM
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 36I. SoukounaM
- 41Enisio CarneiroD
- 31Noah DonkorD
- 11I. GomisM
- 40H. KonatéG
- 39Y. KoneF
- 23T. NkadaF
- 20R. RipartF
- 34Lassana SimakhaD
Form going into Lille vs Estac Troyes
Lille
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Real Betis8 September 2026
- W1-0away to Toulouse3 September 2026
- D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Angers23 August 2026
Estac Troyes
All competitions we cover
- L2-6Strasbourg6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026
- D0-0Paris FC22 August 2026
What these results say
- Lille scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 15 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lille vs Estac Troyes
- 3 June 2023Estac Troyes 1–1 LilleLigue 1
- 15 January 2023Lille 5–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 8 January 2023Lille 2–0 Estac TroyesCoupe de France
- 1 May 2022Estac Troyes 3–0 LilleLigue 1
- 4 December 2021Lille 2–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
The result against the call
Lille beat Estac Troyes 2–0. The model had made a win for Lille its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Tiago Santos 18' for Lille, Ethan Mbappe 90+3' for Lille.
How the call on Lille v Estac Troyes has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 30% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Lille's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Lille win47%▲ +4
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Estac Troyes win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.