Stade Brestois 29
vs
Angers
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Angers
The model makes it 41% Stade Brestois 29, 30% draw, 29% Angers — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.47, Angers 1.07.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Brestois 29 at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers
Stade Brestois 29
- L1-2away to Auxerre20 September 2026
- L0-1Paris Saint Germain13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Le Havre5 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Le Mans22 August 2026
Angers
- W2-0Estac Troyes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Le Havre12 September 2026
- L1-2Rennes6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Auxerre29 August 2026
- L0-2Lille23 August 2026
What these results say
- Stade Brestois 29 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Angers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers
- 17 May 2026Stade Brestois 29 1–1 AngersLigue 1
- 28 September 2025Angers 0–2 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 9 March 2025Stade Brestois 29 2–0 AngersLigue 1
- 5 January 2025Angers 2–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 6 January 2024Stade Brestois 29 1–0 AngersCoupe de France
- 29 January 2023Stade Brestois 29 4–0 AngersLigue 1
Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Angers
Stade Brestois 29
- K. Doumbia4 goals1 assists
Angers
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stade Brestois 29 carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.65 for Angers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.07 for Angers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stade Brestois 29 rate 0.84 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Angers rate 0.67 and 1.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Angers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Brestois 29 the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.07 for Angers. Stade Brestois 29's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.04 for Angers.