Lille vs Le Havre Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lille 1-0 Le Havre.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Lille, 26% draw, 16% Le Havre — fair odds of 1.72, 3.85 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lille at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lille vs Le Havre
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. ÖzerG
- 22Tiago SantosD
- 23T. NianzouD
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 15R. PerraudD
- 6N. BentalebM
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 7D. BakwaM
- 17N. MukauM
- 28G. PerrinM
- 9O. GiroudF
- 26I. CossierD
- 38M. GoffiD
- 12O. GillG
- 35S. DiaouneF
- 21B. AndréM
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 11O. SahraouiF
- 18A. UedaF
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 93G. GallonG
- 20D. OuziadD
- 15A. SekoD
- 5A. ToubaD
- 97M. NdiayeD
- 26S. EbonogM
- 7A. RichardsonM
- 30S. NakamuraM
- 14R. NdiayeM
- 25M. SamattaM
- 9J. MajaF
- 23V. SassoD
- 6J. MwangaM
- 78D. MosengoM
- 17K. MizutaM
- 44I. BounebM
- 16A. BodartG
- 27E. Koffi VinetteF
- 38R. FofanaF
- 24G. ZohouriM
Form going into Lille vs Le Havre
Lille
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Nice20 September 2026
- W2-0Estac Troyes13 September 2026
- L2-3Real Betis8 September 2026
- W1-0away to Toulouse3 September 2026
- D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026
Le Havre
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Toulouse19 September 2026
- D0-0Angers12 September 2026
- L1-2Stade Brestois 295 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyon29 August 2026
- L0-1Monaco23 August 2026
What these results say
- Lille scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Le Havre did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Le Havre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lille vs Le Havre
- 3 May 2026Lille 1–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- 30 November 2025Le Havre 0–1 LilleLigue 1
- 8 February 2025Lille 1–2 Le HavreLigue 1
- 28 September 2024Le Havre 0–3 LilleLigue 1
- 17 February 2024Lille 3–0 Le HavreLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lille and Le Havre
Lille
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Le Havre
GoalsAssists
- J. Maja40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lille beat Le Havre 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lille at 58%. The goal: Dilane Bakwa 5' for Lille. Sent off: Ayumu Seko (Le Havre) 61'. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.36.
How the call on Lille v Le Havre has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 52% / 28% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 58% / 26% / 16%: the biggest move is Lille's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Lille win58%▲ +6
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Le Havre win16%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.