Lorient vs Paris FC Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lorient 1-0 Paris FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Lorient, 28% draw, 45% Paris FC — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Paris FC at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lorient vs Paris FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 38Y. MvogoG
- 32N. AdjeiD
- 3M. TalbiD
- 95S. TouréD
- 20D. SyllaM
- 8N. CadiouM
- 2A. GeorgenM
- 43K. KouassiM
- 17J. MakengoM
- 10I. JensenM
- 42M. KoneF
- 62A. AvomM
- 18I. BaldéF
- 33G. BernardeauM
- 19S. FayeF
- 31S. HaribouF
- 21B. KamaraG
- 30S. KuzmićD
- 11T. Le BrisM
- 55N. ObaretinD
- 1K. TrappG
- 17A. CamaraD
- 31S. CherguiD
- 42D. CoppolaD
- 14H. TraoréD
- 20M. LopezM
- 33P. Lees-MelouM
- 10I. KebbalM
- 7P. PagisM
- 15L. KoleoshoM
- 9L. SinayokoF
- 18O. SissokoF
- 23R. MatondoM
- 16O. NkambadioG
- 5M. MbowD
- 3E. MbembaD
- 11J. KrassoF
- 28T. De SmetD
- 6OtávioD
- 8E. ZabiM
Form going into Lorient vs Paris FC
Lorient
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Le Mans19 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
- L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Nice22 August 2026
Paris FC
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Strasbourg19 September 2026
- D0-0Lyon12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Marseille6 September 2026
- W3-0Nice30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Estac Troyes22 August 2026
What these results say
- Lorient failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lorient scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paris FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 15 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Paris FC
- 5 April 2026Lorient 1–1 Paris FCLigue 1
- 4 February 2026Lorient 2–0 Paris FCCoupe de France
- 3 October 2025Paris FC 2–0 LorientLigue 1
- 8 March 2025Paris FC 3–2 LorientLigue 2
- 14 December 2024Lorient 2–0 Paris FCLigue 2
Leading scorers: Lorient and Paris FC
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Paris FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Sinayoko95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lorient beat Paris FC 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Paris FC at 45% and given a win for Lorient 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Gabin Bernardeau 68' for Lorient. On expected goals it finished 0.60–0.99.
How the call on Lorient v Paris FC has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 29% / 29% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 27% / 28% / 45%: the biggest move is Paris FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Lorient win27%▼ −2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Paris FC win45%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.