Lorient
vs
Paris FC
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lorient 0–1 Paris FC
The model makes it 29% Lorient, 29% draw, 42% Paris FC — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lorient 1.10, Paris FC 1.58.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lorient vs Paris FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris FC at 42% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lorient vs Paris FC
Lorient
- L1-2away to Le Mans19 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
- L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Nice22 August 2026
Paris FC
- W2-1Strasbourg19 September 2026
- D0-0Lyon12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Marseille6 September 2026
- W3-0Nice30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Estac Troyes22 August 2026
What these results say
- Lorient failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lorient scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paris FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Paris FC
- 5 April 2026Lorient 1–1 Paris FCLigue 1
- 4 February 2026Lorient 2–0 Paris FCCoupe de France
- 3 October 2025Paris FC 2–0 LorientLigue 1
- 8 March 2025Paris FC 3–2 LorientLigue 2
- 14 December 2024Lorient 2–0 Paris FCLigue 2
- 9 February 2021Lorient 2–1 Paris FCCoupe de France
Leading scorers: Lorient and Paris FC
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Paris FC
- L. Sinayoko4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lorient carry a model rating of 6.76 against 7.04 for Paris FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Lorient and 1.58 for Paris FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lorient rate 0.84 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paris FC rate 1.13 and 0.78.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris FC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.1 expected goals for Lorient against 1.58 for Paris FC. Lorient's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.78 for Paris FC.