Monaco
vs
Toulouse
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Monaco 2–1 Toulouse
The model makes it 53% Monaco, 25% draw, 22% Toulouse — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Monaco 2.40, Toulouse 1.15.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Monaco vs Toulouse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monaco at 53% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Monaco vs Toulouse
Monaco
- W2-1Lens18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
- W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Le Havre23 August 2026
Toulouse
- W3-2Le Havre19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
- L0-2Lyon22 August 2026
What these results say
- Monaco went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Monaco scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Monaco vs Toulouse
- 25 April 2026Toulouse 2–2 MonacoLigue 1
- 25 October 2025Monaco 1–0 ToulouseLigue 1
- 7 March 2025Toulouse 1–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 7 December 2024Monaco 2–0 ToulouseLigue 1
- 18 February 2024Monaco 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
- 20 December 2023Toulouse 1–2 MonacoLigue 1
Leading scorers: Monaco and Toulouse
Monaco
- Paris Josua Brunner4 goals
Toulouse
- C. Tengstedt3 goals
- T. Jørgensen2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Monaco carry a model rating of 7.01 against 6.74 for Toulouse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for Monaco and 1.15 for Toulouse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monaco rate 1.21 in attack and 0.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toulouse rate 0.95 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monaco the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.4 expected goals for Monaco against 1.15 for Toulouse. Monaco's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.18 for Toulouse.