Monaco vs Toulouse Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Monaco 2-2 Toulouse.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Monaco, 21% draw, 19% Toulouse — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Monaco at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monaco vs Toulouse
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 2VandersonD
- 72Sadibou SanéD
- 15E. DierD
- 20Flávio NazinhoD
- 8L. CamaraM
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 37E. DiopM
- 10A. GolovinM
- 7M. DetourbetM
- 11M. AblineF
- 46A. SoubeirM
- 4J. TezeD
- 9F. BalogunF
- 47S. BenzahraM
- 31Ansu FatiF
- 17S. Idumbo-MuzamboM
- 16P. KöhnG
- 13C. Mawissa ElebiD
- 22M. SalisuD
- 16G. RestesG
- 22R. MessaliD
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 12C. TapéD
- 23C. CásseresM
- 6A. VossahM
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 20C. TengstedtM
- 37Y. AziziM
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 94I. DialloD
- 15A. DønnumM
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 60M. NifloreG
- 19D. OdoguD
- 11S. OppongF
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 14N. SigurM
- 18M. AmougouM
Form going into Monaco vs Toulouse
Monaco
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Lens18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
- W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
- W4-1Gornik Zabrze27 August 2026
Toulouse
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Le Havre19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
- L0-2Lyon22 August 2026
What these results say
- Monaco went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Monaco scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monaco vs Toulouse
- 25 April 2026Toulouse 2–2 MonacoLigue 1
- 25 October 2025Monaco 1–0 ToulouseLigue 1
- 7 March 2025Toulouse 1–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 7 December 2024Monaco 2–0 ToulouseLigue 1
- 18 February 2024Monaco 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
Leading scorers: Monaco and Toulouse
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monaco and Toulouse drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Monaco at 60% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Edan Diop 29' for Monaco, Matthis Abline 38' for Monaco, Casper Tengstedt (penalty) 48' for Toulouse, Sion Oppong 59' for Toulouse. On expected goals it finished 1.25–1.49.
How the call on Monaco v Toulouse has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 53% / 25% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 60% / 21% / 19%: the biggest move is Monaco's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Monaco win60%▲ +7
- Draw21%▼ −4
- Toulouse win19%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.