Paris Saint Germain
vs
Le Mans
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Le Mans
The model makes it 62% Paris Saint Germain, 21% draw, 17% Le Mans — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (8%).
Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 2.96, Le Mans 0.99.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris Saint Germain at 62% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
Paris Saint Germain
- W2-1away to Marseille20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Rennes23 August 2026
Le Mans
- W2-1Lorient19 September 2026
- D2-2Lens13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
- D2-2Stade Brestois 2922 August 2026
What these results say
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
- Le Mans scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Le Mans.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
- 4 February 2025Le Mans 0–2 Paris Saint GermainCoupe de France
- 14 July 2021Paris Saint Germain 4–0 Le MansFriendlies Clubs
- 18 December 2019Le Mans 1–4 Paris Saint GermainCoupe de la Ligue
Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans
Paris Saint Germain
- Ferran Torres4 goals
- Marquinhos3 goals
Le Mans
- A. Bourabaa3 goals2 assists
- L. Mafouta3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Paris Saint Germain carry a model rating of 7.17 against 6.73 for Le Mans. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.96 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.99 for Le Mans. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paris Saint Germain rate 1.40 in attack and 0.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Le Mans rate 0.98 and 1.26.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain against 0.99 for Le Mans. Paris Saint Germain's attack/defence rating is 1.4/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.26 for Le Mans.