10 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Ligue 1 prediction & result

Parc des Princes, Paris
Referee: Mathieu Vernice, France
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Paris Saint Germain, 17% draw, 12% Le Mans — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paris Saint Germain at 71%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paris Saint Germain99%Draw1%Le Mans0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Achraf Hakimi
16'
⚽Lucas Beraldo (pen)
19'
45'
🔁Habib Dialloout: Dame Gueye
47'
Dame Gueye
54'
⚽Louis Mafoutaassist: Lucas Calodat
54'
•Louis Mafouta
🔁João Nevesout: Warren Zaire-Emery
58'
🔁Dro Fernándezout: Fabián Ruiz
58'
🔁Lucas Beraldoout: Vitinha
59'
🔁Mika Godtsout: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
59'
⚽Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
61'
65'
Louis Mafouta
66'
🔁Jean Vercruysseout: Bilal Brahimi
⚽Maghnes Aklioucheassist: Warren Zaire-Emery
68'
🔁Achraf Hakimiout: Désiré Doue
72'
72'
🔁Louis Mafoutaout: William Harhouz
72'
🔁Alexandre Laurayout: Antoine Rabillard
77'
🔁Lucas Calodatout: Yasser Larouci
90+2'
Rayan Bamba
90+2'
Bilal Brahimi
⚽Désiré Doue (pen)
90+3'
90+3'
Noa Boissé
•Vitinha
90+5'

Match stats — Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans

72%Possession28%
22Shots11
8On target3
4Corners4
4.33xG1.49

Goals against chances

Paris Saint Germain3 from 4.33 xGless than the chances were worth
Le Mans1 from 1.49 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
  • 39M. SafonovG
  • 2A. HakimiD
  • 6I. ZabarnyiD
  • 21L. HernándezD
  • 12L. DigneD
  • 87João NevesM
  • 4BeraldoM
  • 27Pedro FernándezM
  • 11M. AklioucheF
  • 9Ferran TorresF
  • 22M. GodtsF
Substitutes
  • 30L. ChevalierG
  • 14D. DouéF
  • 7K. KvaratskheliaF
  • 17VitinhaM
  • 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
  • 51W. PachoD
  • 8Fabián RuizM
  • 5MarquinhosD
  • 33W. Zaïre-EmeryM
Coach: Luis Enrique
Le Mans 3-1-4-2
  • 98N. KocikG
  • 15N. BoisséD
  • 17S. YohouD
  • 5H. VoyerD
  • 8A. LaurayM
  • 26R. BambaM
  • 29L. BretelleM
  • 10J. VercruysseM
  • 22L. CalodatM
  • 13H. DialloF
  • 14L. MafoutaF
Substitutes
  • 23D. TraoréM
  • 18L. BuadésD
  • 7B. BrahimiF
  • 25D. GuèyeF
  • 20W. HarhouzF
  • 1E. HatfoutG
  • 76Y. LarouciD
  • 9A. RabillardF
  • 16Raúl TorrenteD
Coach: P. Videira

Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans

Paris Saint Germain

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Marseille20 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026
  • W6-1Slovan Bratislava9 September 2026
  • L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026

Le Mans

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Lorient19 September 2026
  • D2-2Lens13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
  • D2-2Stade Brestois 2922 August 2026

What these results say

  • Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Paris Saint Germain conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
  • Le Mans scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Le Mans conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Le Mans.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain107212210+1223
15Le Mans101541219-78

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans

  • 4 February 2025Le Mans 0–2 Paris Saint GermainCoupe de France
  • 14 July 2021Paris Saint Germain 4–0 Le MansFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 December 2019Le Mans 1–4 Paris Saint GermainCoupe de la Ligue

Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans

Paris Saint Germain

GoalsAssists

  • Ferran Torres41
  • A. Hakimi32

Le Mans

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mafouta41
  • A. Bourabaa32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paris Saint Germain beat Le Mans 3–1. The model had made a win for Paris Saint Germain its most likely outcome, at 71%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lucas Beraldo (penalty) 19' for Paris Saint Germain, Louis Mafouta 54' for Le Mans, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 61' for Paris Saint Germain, Maghnes Akliouche 68' for Paris Saint Germain. On expected goals it finished 4.33–1.49.

How the call on Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 62% / 21% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 71% / 17% / 12%: the biggest move is Paris Saint Germain's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Paris Saint Germain win71%▲ +9
  2. Draw17%▼ −4
  3. Le Mans win12%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.