10 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Saint Etienne vs Rodez Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Geoffroy-Guichard
Referee: Pierre Gaillouste, France
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Saint Etienne 2-0 Rodez.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Saint Etienne, 24% draw, 25% Rodez — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Saint Etienne at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Saint Etienne99%Draw1%Rodez0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Thierno Balloassist: Jakob Breum
15'
27'
🔁Luzolo Vangiout: Ryan Ponti
37'
Jordan Mendes
45+2'
Mathis Saka
⚽Augustine Boakyeassist: Jakob Breum
55'
Áron Csongvai
66'
68'
🔁Nachon Nsingiout: Mathis Touho
68'
🔁Steven Luyambula Biwaout: Kelian Nsona
🔁Irvin Cardonaout: Joshua Duffus
71'
🔁Jakob Breumout: Adam Baallal
72'
77'
🔁Mathis Sakaout: Marco Essimi
77'
🔁Kenny Nageraout: Octave Joly
🔁Augustine Boakyeout: elyes dhaoui
79'
🔁Ben Oldout: Nathan Kasia Nkondo
80'
I. Cathro
87'
🔁Gautier Larsonneurout: Mamour Ndiaye
88'

Match stats — Saint Etienne vs Rodez

62%Possession38%
10Shots10
4On target4
1Corners6
1.64xG0.77

Goals against chances

Saint Etienne2 from 1.64 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rodez0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1
  • 30G. LarsonneurG
  • 13João FerreiraD
  • 23K. PedroD
  • 18S. NairD
  • 11B. OldD
  • 14Á. CsongvaiM
  • 6M. BernauerM
  • 20A. BoakyeM
  • 10J. BreumM
  • 8T. BalloM
  • 7I. CardonaF
Substitutes
  • 52T. TeillolD
  • 32Adam BaallalM
  • 46E. DhaouiM
  • 31N. El JamaliM
  • 40L. LavalléeG
  • 17J. DuffusF
  • 1Mamour NdiayeG
  • 37N. Kasia NkondoD
  • 16T. SvetlinM
Coach: Ian Cathro
Rodez 5-3-2
  • 1Q. BraatG
  • 28S. Luyambula BiwaD
  • 24L. QuenabioD
  • 4M. MagninD
  • 17L. Vungele VangiD
  • 3R. LipinskiD
  • 10M. SakaM
  • 6J. MendesM
  • 29Antonin CartillierM
  • 9N. NsingiF
  • 7K. NageraF
Substitutes
  • 11M. TouhoF
  • 30E. CrombezG
  • 27M. Essimi AtebaF
  • 15E. Jean-LambertD
  • 22O. JolyM
  • 21K. NsonaF
  • 8D. PavlovićM
  • 20R. PontiD
  • 5M. SyllaD
Coach: D. Santini

Form going into Saint Etienne vs Rodez

Saint Etienne

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Metz19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Dunkerque12 September 2026
  • W3-1Montpellier5 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Dijon31 August 2026
  • W4-0Grenoble22 August 2026

Rodez

All competitions we cover

  • L3-4Nancy18 September 2026
  • L0-1Grenoble11 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Metz5 September 2026
  • D2-2PAU28 August 2026
  • W5-2away to Nantes22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Saint Etienne scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Saint Etienne had three goals or more.
  • Saint Etienne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rodez conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rodez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rodez scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Saint Etienne129122511+1428
13Rodez124171723-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Saint Etienne vs Rodez

  • 15 May 2026Saint Etienne 0–0 RodezLigue 2
  • 2 May 2026Rodez 2–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2
  • 16 August 2025Saint Etienne 4–0 RodezLigue 2
  • 24 May 2024Saint Etienne 2–0 RodezLigue 2

Leading scorers: Saint Etienne and Rodez

Saint Etienne

GoalsAssists

  • I. Cardona65
  • A. Boakye63
  • T. Ballo52

Rodez

GoalsAssists

  • I. Baldé50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Saint Etienne beat Rodez 2–0. The model had made a win for Saint Etienne its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Thierno Ballo 15' for Saint Etienne, Augustine Boakye 55' for Saint Etienne. On expected goals it finished 1.64–0.77.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Saint Etienne a 73.3% chance to finish in the top four: 78.1% after a win, 71.0% after a draw, 66.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.1%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.

For Rodez the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 13.3% going in: 17.8% after a win, 12.4% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.9%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Saint Etienne v Rodez has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 51% / 24% / 25%: the biggest move is Saint Etienne's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Saint Etienne win51%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Rodez win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.