Saint Etienne
vs
Rodez
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Saint Etienne 2–1 Rodez
The model makes it 46% Saint Etienne, 27% draw, 27% Rodez — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Saint Etienne 1.97, Rodez 1.23.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Saint Etienne vs Rodez
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Saint Etienne at 46% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Saint Etienne vs Rodez
Saint Etienne
- D2-2away to Metz19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dunkerque12 September 2026
- W3-1Montpellier5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Dijon31 August 2026
- W4-0Grenoble22 August 2026
Rodez
- L3-4Nancy18 September 2026
- L0-1Grenoble11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Metz5 September 2026
- D2-2PAU28 August 2026
- W5-2away to Nantes22 August 2026
What these results say
- Saint Etienne scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Saint Etienne had three goals or more.
- Saint Etienne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rodez conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rodez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rodez scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
| 14 | Rodez | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Saint Etienne vs Rodez
- 15 May 2026Saint Etienne 0–0 RodezLigue 2
- 2 May 2026Rodez 2–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 16 August 2025Saint Etienne 4–0 RodezLigue 2
- 24 May 2024Saint Etienne 2–0 RodezLigue 2
- 10 May 2024Saint Etienne 1–1 RodezLigue 2
Leading scorers: Saint Etienne and Rodez
Saint Etienne
- I. Cardona4 goals4 assists
- A. Boakye4 goals3 assists
- T. Ballo4 goals2 assists
Rodez
- I. Baldé5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Saint Etienne carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.46 for Rodez. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Saint Etienne and 1.23 for Rodez. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Saint Etienne rate 0.75 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rodez rate 0.79 and 1.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Saint Etienne a 90.5% chance of the title and Rodez 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Saint Etienne the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Saint Etienne against 1.23 for Rodez. Saint Etienne's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.78 for Rodez.