Nashville SC
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Nashville SC 2–0 Sporting Kansas City
The model makes it 64% Nashville SC, 21% draw, 15% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Nashville SC 2.89, Sporting Kansas City 0.82.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Nashville SC are top in Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference on 60 points from 27 games; Sporting Kansas City are bottom in Major League Soccer, Western Conference on 21 points from 27 games.
- Nashville SC are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Toronto FC.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Seattle Sounders.
- Last 5 meetings: Nashville SC 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 January 2024, ended Nashville SC 2–1 Sporting Kansas City.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nashville SC at 64% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
- W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
- W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Toronto FC9 September 2026
- D0-0away to New York City FC4 September 2026
Sporting Kansas City
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
- W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026
- L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
What these results say
- Nashville SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Kansas City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55 | 21 | +34 | 60 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 65 | -33 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
- 30 January 2024Nashville SC 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityFriendlies Clubs
- 21 September 2023Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 19 June 2022Nashville SC 1–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 10 April 2022Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 11 October 2020Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
- S. Surridge16 goals1 assist
- H. Mukhtar13 goals6 assists
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Nashville SC carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.28 for Sporting Kansas City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.89 goals for Nashville SC and 0.82 for Sporting Kansas City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nashville SC rate 0.80 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Kansas City rate 0.63 and 1.98.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.89 expected goals for Nashville SC against 0.82 for Sporting Kansas City. Nashville SC's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.98 for Sporting Kansas City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nashville SC at home · Sporting Kansas City away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Nashville SC 27, Sporting Kansas City 27.
Nashville SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Sporting Kansas City have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nashville SC
- at San Jose Earthquakes18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 43%
- at CF Montreal24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 50%
- vs Philadelphia Union29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 46%
- vs New York Red Bulls1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 57%
Sporting Kansas City
- vs Real Salt Lake18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 36%
- vs Austin25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 36%
- at Minnesota United FC29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
- vs FC Dallas31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.