Colorado Rapids
vs
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Colorado Rapids 2–1 Minnesota United FC
The model makes it 42% Colorado Rapids, 27% draw, 31% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Colorado Rapids 1.80, Minnesota United FC 1.38.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Colorado Rapids are 8th on 36 points from 27 games; Minnesota United FC are 14th on 29 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Colorado Rapids have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Los Angeles Galaxy.
- Minnesota United FC have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Seattle Sounders.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 May 2026, ended Minnesota United FC 0–1 Colorado Rapids.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colorado Rapids at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC
Colorado Rapids
- L2-3away to Los Angeles Galaxy27 September 2026
- D3-3Seattle Sounders20 September 2026
- W1-0CF Montreal13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Austin10 September 2026
- L0-3away to Columbus Crew5 September 2026
Minnesota United FC
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas10 September 2026
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
What these results say
- Colorado Rapids failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC
- 14 May 2026Minnesota United FC 0–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2025Colorado Rapids 1–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2025Minnesota United FC 1–2 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 29 September 2024Minnesota United FC 3–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 26 May 2024Colorado Rapids 3–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2023Minnesota United FC 3–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Colorado Rapids and Minnesota United FC
Colorado Rapids
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah14 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Colorado Rapids carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.42 for Minnesota United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Colorado Rapids and 1.38 for Minnesota United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Colorado Rapids rate 0.59 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Minnesota United FC rate 0.70 and 1.67.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colorado Rapids the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Colorado Rapids against 1.38 for Minnesota United FC. Colorado Rapids's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.67 for Minnesota United FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Colorado Rapids at home · Minnesota United FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Colorado Rapids 27, Minnesota United FC 27.
Colorado Rapids score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Minnesota United FC have let in 9 there.
Minnesota United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); Colorado Rapids have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Colorado Rapids
- at Portland Timbers18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 31%
- vs Vancouver Whitecaps25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 29%
- at San Jose Earthquakes29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 29%
- vs Chicago Fire1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 36%
Minnesota United FC
- vs St. Louis City17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 33%
- at Houston Dynamo25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 28%
- vs Sporting Kansas City29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 49%
- at Los Angeles FC2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.