Ittihad Tanger
vs
Maghreb Fès
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Ittihad Tanger 0–1 Maghreb Fès
The model makes it 30% Ittihad Tanger, 32% draw, 38% Maghreb Fès — fair odds of 3.33, 3.13 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Ittihad Tanger 0.92, Maghreb Fès 1.15.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Ittihad Tanger are 3rd on 4 points from 2 games; Maghreb Fès are top on 6 points from 2 games — Botola Pro.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 22 May 2026, ended Maghreb Fès 0–1 Ittihad Tanger.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maghreb Fès at 38% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès
Ittihad Tanger
- D1-1Moghreb Tetouan2 October 2026
- W3-1away to Amal Tiznit24 September 2026
Maghreb Fès
- W2-1away to Hassania Agadir3 October 2026
- W2-1CR Khemis Zemamra27 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ittihad Tanger | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 1 | Maghreb Fès | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès
- 22 May 2026Maghreb Fès 0–1 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 25 October 2025Ittihad Tanger 1–1 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 8 March 2025Maghreb Fès 1–1 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 3 November 2024Ittihad Tanger 1–1 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 27 March 2024Maghreb Fès 2–2 Ittihad TangerCup
- 9 March 2024Maghreb Fès 2–1 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
The two sides
Ittihad Tanger carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.52 for Maghreb Fès. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Ittihad Tanger and 1.15 for Maghreb Fès. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ittihad Tanger rate 0.58 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maghreb Fès rate 0.66 and 1.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maghreb Fès the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Ittihad Tanger against 1.15 for Maghreb Fès. Ittihad Tanger's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.28 for Maghreb Fès.