17 July 2026

St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer prediction & result

Full time3 – 2

Final score: St. Louis City 3-2 Sporting Kansas City.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% St. Louis City, 24% draw, 20% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St. Louis City at 56% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Jeong
28'
⚽M. Hartelassist: S. Becher
36'
42'
⚽Capita
🔁C. Wallemout: Rafael Santos
46'
46'
🔁J. Reidout: E. Karic
46'
🔁I. Jamesout: J. Davis
🔁S. Jeongout: M. Perez
64'
75'
🔁O. Blorianout: E. Bartlow
76'
🔁Z. Bassongout: K. Agyabeng
76'
⚽D. Joveljicassist: M. Garcia
78'
Capita
•Simon Becher
82'
85'
🔁Capitaout: S. Afrifa
⚽E. Lowen (pen)
85'
🔁T. Totlandout: J. Orozco
88'
🔁E. Lowenout: T. Ostrak
88'
Daniel Edelman
90+7'
Benjamin Lundt
90'
🔁S. Becherout: P. Ault
90+6'

Match stats — St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City

53%Possession47%
20Shots12
6On target3
5Corners6
2.51xG0.98

Goals against chances

St. Louis City3 from 2.51 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sporting Kansas City2 from 0.98 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Louis City 3-4-3
  • 39B. LundtG
  • 5L. MacNaughtonD
  • 32T. BaumgartlD
  • 21D. PolvaraD
  • 6C. WallemM
  • 10E. LowenM
  • 24D. EdelmanM
  • 14T. TotlandM
  • 77S. JeongF
  • 11S. BecherF
  • 17M. HartelF
Substitutes
  • 31C. OlivaresG
  • 20Rafael SantosD
  • 99J. OrozcoD
  • 29P. AultM
  • 28M. PerezM
  • 27F. FallD
  • 7T. OstrakM
  • 22K. HiebertD
  • 59M. JoynerM
Coach: Yoann Damet
Sporting Kansas City 4-2-3-1
  • 30S. ClevelandG
  • 2I. JamesD
  • 15J. MillerD
  • 5O. BlorianD
  • 99J. ReidD
  • 4L. JohnsenM
  • 22Z. BassongM
  • 7CapitaM
  • 6M. GarciaM
  • 11C. HarrisM
  • 9D. JoveljicF
Substitutes
  • 1J. PulskampG
  • 18E. KaricD
  • 93S. SuleymanovF
  • 8J. DavisM
  • 17S. AfrifaF
  • 16J. BartlettD
  • 23E. BartlowD
  • 14M. TschantretM
  • 20K. AgyabengM
Coach: Raphael Wicky

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5St. Louis City2511864235+741
15Sporting Kansas City2453162659-3318

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City

  • 17 July 2026St. Louis City 3–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 15 May 2025St. Louis City 2–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 6 April 2025Sporting Kansas City 2–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 29 September 2024St. Louis City 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 21 July 2024Sporting Kansas City 1–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 21 April 2024Sporting Kansas City 3–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.