Inter Miami vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Inter Miami 3-2 Chicago Fire.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Inter Miami, 20% draw, 49% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 3.23, 5.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter Miami vs Chicago Fire
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34Rocco Ríos NovoG
- 4Facundo MuraD
- 17Ian FrayD
- 16MicaelD
- 3Sergio ReguilónD
- 41David RuízM
- 42Yannick BrightM
- 8Telasco SegoviaM
- 24Mateo SilvettiM
- 19Germán BerterameF
- 9Luis SuárezF
- 59Preston PlambeckM
- 56Daniel PinterF
- 32Noah AllenD
- 97Dayne St. ClairG
- 70Daniel SumallaD
- 76Ezequiel Abadia-RedaD
- 55Ian UrkidiM
- 52Diego ReyF
- 1Chris BradyG
- 24Jonathan DeanD
- 16Joel WatermanD
- 3Jack ElliottD
- 15Andrew GutmanD
- 11Philip ZinckernagelM
- 42Dje Tah D'AvillaM
- 6Anton SalétrosM
- 19Jonathan BambaM
- 7Maren Haile-SelassieF
- 9Robert LewandowskiF
- 17Robin LodM
- 22Mauricio PinedaD
- 12Puso DithejaneF
- 14Viktor RadojevićD
- 20Jason ShokalookF
- 44Josh CohenG
- 5Samuel RogersD
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 35Sergio OregelM
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Inter Miami | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 75 | 55 | +20 | 56 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 57 | 48 | +9 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs Chicago Fire
- 30 September 2025Inter Miami 3–5 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 13 April 2025Chicago Fire 0–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024Chicago Fire 1–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 20 July 2024Inter Miami 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2023Chicago Fire 4–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and Chicago Fire
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2512
- L. Suárez156
Chicago Fire
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Inter Miami beat Chicago Fire 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Chicago Fire at 49% and given a win for Inter Miami 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: R. Rios (own goal) 18' for Chicago Fire, L. Suarez (penalty) 27' for Inter Miami, L. Suarez 51' for Inter Miami, P. Dithejane 67' for Chicago Fire, P. Plambeck 87' for Inter Miami. On expected goals it finished 2.11–1.90.