22 July 2026, 23:30 UTC

Inter Miami vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result

Nu Stadium, Miami
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Inter Miami 3-2 Chicago Fire.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Inter Miami, 20% draw, 49% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 3.23, 5.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Chicago Fire at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽R. Rios (OG)
⚽L. Suarez (pen)
27'
⚽L. Suarezassist: G. Berterame
51'
62'
🔁R. Lewandowskiout: R. Lod
63'
🔁P. Zinckernagelout: P. Dithejane
63'
🔁D. D'Avillaout: M. Pineda
64'
J. Elliott
67'
⚽P. Dithejaneassist: M. Haile-Selassie
🔁D. Ruizout: P. Plambeck
69'
🔁M. Silvettiout: D. Pinter
74'
🔁I. Frayout: N. Allen
85'
⚽P. Plambeck
87'
88'
🔁M. Haile-Selassieout: J. Shokalook
88'
🔁A. Gutmanout: V. Radojevic
S. Reguilon
90+7'

Match stats — Inter Miami vs Chicago Fire

53%Possession47%
14Shots15
7On target4
8Corners4
2.11xG1.9

Goals against chances

Inter Miami3 from 2.11 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chicago Fire2 from 1.90 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter Miami 4-4-2
  • 34Rocco Ríos NovoG
  • 4Facundo MuraD
  • 17Ian FrayD
  • 16MicaelD
  • 3Sergio ReguilónD
  • 41David RuízM
  • 42Yannick BrightM
  • 8Telasco SegoviaM
  • 24Mateo SilvettiM
  • 19Germán BerterameF
  • 9Luis SuárezF
Substitutes
  • 59Preston PlambeckM
  • 56Daniel PinterF
  • 32Noah AllenD
  • 97Dayne St. ClairG
  • 70Daniel SumallaD
  • 76Ezequiel Abadia-RedaD
  • 55Ian UrkidiM
  • 52Diego ReyF
Coach: Guillermo Hoyos Angel
Chicago Fire 4-4-2
  • 1Chris BradyG
  • 24Jonathan DeanD
  • 16Joel WatermanD
  • 3Jack ElliottD
  • 15Andrew GutmanD
  • 11Philip ZinckernagelM
  • 42Dje Tah D'AvillaM
  • 6Anton SalétrosM
  • 19Jonathan BambaM
  • 7Maren Haile-SelassieF
  • 9Robert LewandowskiF
Substitutes
  • 17Robin LodM
  • 22Mauricio PinedaD
  • 12Puso DithejaneF
  • 14Viktor RadojevićD
  • 20Jason ShokalookF
  • 44Josh CohenG
  • 5Samuel RogersD
  • 2Leonardo BarrosoD
  • 35Sergio OregelM
Coach: Mario Barcena

Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs Chicago Fire

  • 22 July 2026Inter Miami 3–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 30 September 2025Inter Miami 3–5 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 13 April 2025Chicago Fire 0–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 1 September 2024Chicago Fire 1–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 20 July 2024Inter Miami 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 5 October 2023Chicago Fire 4–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Inter Miami and Chicago Fire

Inter Miami

  • L. Messi19 goals11 assists
  • L. Suárez11 goals2 assists

Chicago Fire

  • H. Cuypers13 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.