17 July 2026

Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers Major League Soccer prediction & result

Full time1 – 5

Final score: Seattle Sounders 1-5 Portland Timbers.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Seattle Sounders, 27% draw, 50% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Portland Timbers at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽K. Kelsyassist: J. Fory
Jackson Ragen
41'
🔁J. Morrisout: D. Musovski
46'
Paul Rothrock
49'
56'
⚽K. Millerassist: B. Bye
60'
⚽C. Bassettassist: D. Da Costa
63'
⚽K. Kelsy
🔁S. Brunellout: O. De Rosario
64'
🔁J. Ferreiraout: P. Arriola
64'
🔁K. Kossa-Rienziout: P. Kingston
64'
73'
🔁A. Lassiterout: A. Aravena
73'
🔁C. Bassettout: J. Caicedo
•Paul Rothrock
82'
🔁A. Lopezout: S. Hawkins
84'
87'
🔁K. Kelsyout: F. Mora
87'
🔁D. Charaout: J. Ortiz
⚽H. Dotsonassist: A. Rusnak
87'
90+1'
🔁Antonyout: I. Smith
90'
⚽A. Aravenaassist: D. Da Costa

Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers

48%Possession52%
11Shots20
6On target10
2Corners8
0.53xG2.24

Goals against chances

Seattle Sounders1 from 0.53 xGabout what the chances were worth
Portland Timbers5 from 2.24 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
  • 26A. ThomasG
  • 85K. Kossa-RienziD
  • 35A. LopezD
  • 25J. RagenD
  • 5NouhouD
  • 37S. BrunellM
  • 31H. DotsonM
  • 9J. FerreiraM
  • 11A. RusnakM
  • 14P. RothrockM
  • 13J. MorrisF
Substitutes
  • 24S. FreiG
  • 95O. De RosarioF
  • 90S. GomezM
  • 36Y. TsukanomeF
  • 17P. ArriolaF
  • 19D. MusovskiF
  • 45P. KingstonM
  • 39S. HawkinsD
Coach: Brian Schmetzer
Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 5B. ByeD
  • 20F. SurmanD
  • 4K. MillerD
  • 27J. ForyD
  • 21D. CharaM
  • 7A. LassiterM
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 10D. Da CostaM
  • 11AntonyM
  • 19K. KelsyF
Substitutes
  • 25T. MuseG
  • 9F. MoraF
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 28A. AravenaF
  • 30J. CaicedoM
  • 6A. BonetigD
  • 16S. JuraD
  • 23I. SmithD
Coach: Jack Cassidy

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Seattle Sounders237792530-528
8Portland Timbers2595114747032

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers

  • 17 July 2026Seattle Sounders 1–5 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 5 October 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 18 May 2025Portland Timbers 1–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 20 October 2024Seattle Sounders 1–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 1 September 2024Portland Timbers 1–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 12 May 2024Portland Timbers 1–2 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.