17 July 2026

Bahia vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result

Full time2 – 0

Final score: Bahia 2-0 Chapecoense.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bahia, 23% draw, 28% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bahia at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Luciano Juba
-5'
•Erick Pulga
9'
⚽Rodrigo (pen)
12'
⚽R. Gomezassist: David Duarte
34'
46'
🔁Bruno Matiasout: Vinicius Balieiro
46'
🔁Enioout: Neto Pessoa
63'
🔁Marcinhoout: Rubens Ricoldi
63'
🔁Marcos Viniciusout: Everton
José Guilherme
64'
🔁Willian Joseout: Everton Ribeiro
67'
🔁Ademirout: Kaue Junior
67'
🔁Rodrigoout: Jean Lucas
79'
🔁Erick Pulgaout: Everaldo
80'
81'
🔁Camilo Reijersout: David Antunes
🔁David Duarteout: Marcos Victor
87'

Match stats — Bahia vs Chapecoense

65%Possession35%
17Shots10
6On target2
10Corners6
1.83xG0.41

Goals against chances

Bahia2 from 1.83 xGabout what the chances were worth
Chapecoense0 from 0.41 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bahia 4-3-3
  • 1RonaldoG
  • 31Román GómezD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 21Santiago Ramos MingoD
  • 66José GuilhermeD
  • 14ErickM
  • 5Nicolás AcevedoM
  • 11Rodrigo NestorM
  • 7AdemirF
  • 12Willian JoséF
  • 16Erick PulgaF
Substitutes
  • 57Kauê FurquimM
  • 10Everton RibeiroM
  • 6Jean LucasM
  • 27EveraldoF
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 91Iuri JeanG
  • 46Luciano JubaD
  • 25Iago BorduchiD
  • 4KanuD
Coach: Ceni Rogerio
Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
  • 30MatheusG
  • 2Marcos ViníciusD
  • 15Rafael ThyereD
  • 3Eduardo DomaD
  • 91Bruno PachecoD
  • 16Bruno MatiasM
  • 27CamiloM
  • 97ÊnioM
  • 10Giovanni AugustoM
  • 7MarcinhoM
  • 11Yannick BolasieF
Substitutes
  • 17Vinicius BalieiroM
  • 18Neto PessoaF
  • 70Rubens TadeuM
  • 26EvertonD
  • 19David AntunesM
  • 1Rafael SantosG
  • 33Bruno LeonardoD
  • 21KauanD
  • 6ManchaD
Coach: Lacerda Rafael

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Bahia27121054233+946
20Chapecoense2638152852-2417

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bahia vs Chapecoense

  • 17 July 2026Bahia 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 1 October 2022Chapecoense 3–1 BahiaSerie B
  • 14 June 2022Bahia 0–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
  • 24 October 2021Bahia 3–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 4 July 2021Chapecoense 0–2 BahiaSerie A
  • 7 November 2019Bahia 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A

Leading scorers: Bahia and Chapecoense

Bahia

  • Luciano Juba8 goals1 assists

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.