23 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result

CITYPARK, St. Louis
Full time2 – 1

Final score: St. Louis City 2-1 Houston Dynamo.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% St. Louis City, 33% draw, 26% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Louis City at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Louis City98%Draw2%Houston Dynamo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Becherassist: A. Matan
23'
Alexandru Mățan
27'
46'
🔁M. Saracchiout: Felipe Andrade
57'
🔁D. Samassekouout: H. Herrera
57'
🔁D. McGuireout: I. Aliyu
58'
Agustín Bouzat
58'
Mateusz Bogusz
🔁T. Ostrakout: C. Holse
62'
Simon Becher
63'
66'
•Mateusz Bogusz
Carlo Holse
70'
🔁A. Matanout: L. MacNaughton
72'
🔁S. Jeongout: P. Ault
72'
75'
⚽I. Aliyu
81'
Lucas Halter
⚽D. Polvara
85'
87'
🔁A. Bouzatout: F. Negri
Tomas Totland
90+7'
🔁S. Becherout: M. Perez
90+2'
90+2'
🔁L. Ennaliout: D. Holmes

Match stats — St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo

47%Possession53%
9Shots18
4On target4
1Corners5
1.65xG1.66

Goals against chances

St. Louis City2 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
Houston Dynamo1 from 1.66 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Louis City 3-4-1-2
  • 1R. BurkiG
  • 99J. OrozcoD
  • 32T. BaumgartlD
  • 21D. PolvaraD
  • 6C. WallemM
  • 24D. EdelmanM
  • 23A. MatanM
  • 14T. TotlandM
  • 7T. OstrakF
  • 77S. JeongF
  • 11S. BecherF
Substitutes
  • 39B. LundtG
  • 5L. MacNaughtonD
  • 20Rafael SantosD
  • 4M. MbackeD
  • 28M. PerezM
  • 19C. HolseF
  • 91Z. ZengueM
  • 29P. AultM
  • 48R. LynchF
Coach: Yoann Damet
Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. BondG
  • 11L. EnnaliD
  • 34A. ReschD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 4M. SaracchiD
  • 6ArturM
  • 18D. SamassekouM
  • 8J. McGlynnM
  • 30A. BouzatM
  • 19M. BoguszM
  • 23D. McGuireF
Substitutes
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 28E. SviatchenkoD
  • 36Felipe AndradeD
  • 3Antonio CarlosD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 16H. HerreraM
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 20GuilhermeF
  • 24I. AliyuF
Coach: Ben Olsen

Form going into St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo

St. Louis City

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Sporting Kansas City20 August 2026
  • W3-1away to San Jose Earthquakes16 August 2026
  • D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
  • W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
  • W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026

Houston Dynamo

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Vancouver Whitecaps20 August 2026
  • W1-0Los Angeles Galaxy16 August 2026
  • W2-0away to New England Revolution8 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Sporting Kansas City2 August 2026
  • W3-0Austin26 July 2026

What these results say

  • St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Houston Dynamo won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Houston Dynamo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Houston Dynamo kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3St. Louis City34159105948+1154
5Houston Dynamo34149114343051

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo

  • 20 May 2026St. Louis City 2–2 Houston DynamoUS Open Cup
  • 31 August 2025St. Louis City 2–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 29 June 2025Houston Dynamo 1–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 6 October 2024St. Louis City 3–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 5 May 2024Houston Dynamo 0–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 28 February 2024Houston Dynamo 1–0 St. Louis CityCONCACAF Champions League

Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Houston Dynamo

St. Louis City

GoalsAssists

  • Rafael Navarro196

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St. Louis City beat Houston Dynamo 2–1. The model had made a win for St. Louis City its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: S. Becher 23' for St. Louis City, I. Aliyu 75' for Houston Dynamo, D. Polvara 85' for St. Louis City. On expected goals it finished 1.65–1.66.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.