Los Angeles FC
vs
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 33% Los Angeles FC, 26% draw, 41% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.33, Portland Timbers 1.51.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Los Angeles FC
- D1-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps1 August 2026
- W4-0Sporting Kansas City26 July 2026
- W3-1Real Salt Lake23 July 2026
- W3-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy18 July 2026
- W1-0Seattle Sounders25 May 2026
Portland Timbers
- W2-1Seattle Sounders2 August 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake26 July 2026
- D2-2FC Dallas23 July 2026
- W5-1away to Seattle Sounders17 July 2026
- L1-3San Jose Earthquakes24 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 34 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Los Angeles FC carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.67 for Portland Timbers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Los Angeles FC W-W-W-W-D; Portland Timbers L-W-D-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Los Angeles FC and 1.51 for Portland Timbers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles FC rate 0.65 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portland Timbers rate 0.75 and 1.08.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Los Angeles FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Los Angeles FC a 13.8% chance of the title and Portland Timbers 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portland Timbers the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Los Angeles FC against 1.51 for Portland Timbers. Los Angeles FC's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.08 for Portland Timbers.