San Diego
vs
Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 57% San Diego, 24% draw, 19% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: San Diego 1.77, Colorado Rapids 0.94.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
San Diego
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
- L2-4Vancouver Whitecaps24 May 2026
- D3-3FC Cincinnati17 May 2026
Colorado Rapids
- W1-0Austin2 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Louis City26 July 2026
- W1-0San Diego23 July 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas24 May 2026
- L1-2away to Real Salt Lake17 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | San Diego | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 21 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen11 goals2 assists
Colorado Rapids
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
San Diego carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.35 for Colorado Rapids. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): San Diego D-L-L-W-D; Colorado Rapids L-L-W-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for San Diego and 0.94 for Colorado Rapids. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Diego rate 0.67 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colorado Rapids rate 0.50 and 1.40.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Colorado Rapids, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Diego the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for San Diego against 0.94 for Colorado Rapids. San Diego's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.4 for Colorado Rapids.