San Diego vs Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 3-0 Colorado Rapids.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% San Diego, 25% draw, 26% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
San Diego at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs Colorado Rapids
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1dos Santos CJG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 27L. BombinoD
- 10A. DreyerM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 8O. ValakariF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 3D. ThorhallssonD
- 25I. PilcherD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 9L. MorganF
- 70A. Alvarado JrF
- 19D. VazquezM
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 41N. HansenG
- 4R. CannonD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 5L. WilliamsD
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 12J. AtencioM
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 8H. OjediranM
- 7D. SealyF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 93G. MinoungouF
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 24N. CobbD
- 13W. FrederickM
- 88Y. MazizM
- 49N. TchoumbaM
- 77D. YapiF
- 16A. HarrisF
- 32D. PhillipF
Form going into San Diego vs Colorado Rapids
San Diego
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Portland Timbers20 August 2026
- W1-0away to Los Angeles FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
Colorado Rapids
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Los Angeles FC20 August 2026
- W2-0Sporting Kansas City16 August 2026
- W1-0Austin2 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Louis City26 July 2026
- W1-0San Diego23 July 2026
What these results say
- San Diego scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Diego had two goals or fewer.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Colorado Rapids had two goals or fewer.
- Colorado Rapids won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | San Diego | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 38 |
| 12 | Colorado Rapids | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs Colorado Rapids
- 23 July 2026Colorado Rapids 1–0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2025San Diego 2–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 13 April 2025Colorado Rapids 3–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
San Diego beat Colorado Rapids 3–0. The model had made a win for San Diego its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: O. Valakari 27' for San Diego, E. Achouri 35' for San Diego, Gabriel Pirani 71' for San Diego. On expected goals it finished 1.33–0.47.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.