Houston Dynamo
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 52% Houston Dynamo, 25% draw, 23% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.74, San Jose Earthquakes 1.10.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Houston Dynamo
- W1-0Los Angeles Galaxy16 August 2026
- W2-0away to New England Revolution8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Sporting Kansas City2 August 2026
- W3-0Austin26 July 2026
- D1-1DC United23 July 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
- L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
- W3-1away to Portland Timbers24 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 24 | +4 | 35 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme11 goals5 assists
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd11 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Houston Dynamo carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.43 for San Jose Earthquakes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Houston Dynamo D-W-W-W-W; San Jose Earthquakes W-L-D-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.10 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Houston Dynamo rate 0.51 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.76 and 1.81.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Houston Dynamo a 4.9% chance of the title and San Jose Earthquakes 2.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Houston Dynamo the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Houston Dynamo against 1.1 for San Jose Earthquakes. Houston Dynamo's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.81 for San Jose Earthquakes.