30 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result

Shell Energy Stadium, Houston
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Houston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Houston Dynamo, 24% draw, 21% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Houston Dynamo at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Houston Dynamo5%Draw92%San Jose Earthquakes3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

58'
Reid Roberts
🔁F. Negriout: I. Aliyu
61'
69'
🔁D. Romneyout: M. Floriani
73'
🔁B. Lerouxout: N. Fernandez
73'
🔁P. Marieout: P. Judd
🔁H. Herreraout: D. McGuire
75'
82'
🔁J. Rickettsout: J. Jasinski
🔁Felipe Andradeout: D. Holmes
83'
🔁J. McGlynnout: A. Bouzat
90+1'
90+1'
🔁E. Lowenout: Vitor Costa
90+1'
🔁N. Tsakirisout: I. Harkes

Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

42%Possession58%
10Shots11
0On target4
7Corners4
0.7xG1.33

Goals against chances

Houston Dynamo0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth
San Jose Earthquakes0 from 1.33 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Houston Dynamo 4-3-3
  • 31J. BondG
  • 36Felipe AndradeD
  • 3Antonio CarlosD
  • 34A. ReschD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 8J. McGlynnM
  • 6ArturM
  • 16H. HerreraM
  • 11L. EnnaliF
  • 19M. BoguszF
  • 20GuilhermeF
Substitutes
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 28E. SviatchenkoD
  • 13S. VinesD
  • 18D. SamassekouM
  • 30A. BouzatM
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 17N. MarkanichF
  • 23D. McGuireF
  • 24I. AliyuF
Coach: Ben Olsen
San Jose Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 5D. MunieD
  • 4D. RomneyD
  • 18R. RobertsD
  • 3P. MarieM
  • 14R. VieiraM
  • 34B. LerouxM
  • 2J. RickettsM
  • 10N. TsakirisF
  • 23E. LowenF
  • 7O. BoudaF
Substitutes
  • 31F. MontaliG
  • 87Vitor CostaD
  • 17J. JasinskiD
  • 25M. FlorianiD
  • 16J. SkahanM
  • 6I. HarkesM
  • 20N. FernandezM
  • 19P. JuddF
  • 9L. JovanovicF
Coach: Bruce Arena

Form going into Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

Houston Dynamo

  • L1-2away to St. Louis City23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Vancouver Whitecaps20 August 2026
  • W1-0Los Angeles Galaxy16 August 2026
  • W2-0away to New England Revolution8 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Sporting Kansas City2 August 2026

San Jose Earthquakes

  • L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy20 August 2026
  • L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
  • D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Houston Dynamo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Houston Dynamo won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Houston Dynamo kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Houston Dynamo2713593432+244
4San Jose Earthquakes2713684939+1045

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

  • 24 August 2025Houston Dynamo 1–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 25 May 2025San Jose Earthquakes 3–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 18 July 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 31 March 2024Houston Dynamo 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 22 June 2023Houston Dynamo 4–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 2 April 2023San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and San Jose Earthquakes

Houston Dynamo

  • Guilherme14 goals6 assists

San Jose Earthquakes

  • P. Judd15 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.