Colorado Rapids
vs
Real Salt Lake
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 41% Colorado Rapids, 28% draw, 31% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Colorado Rapids 1.38, Real Salt Lake 1.16.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Colorado Rapids
- W2-0Sporting Kansas City16 August 2026
- W1-0Austin2 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Louis City26 July 2026
- W1-0San Diego23 July 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas24 May 2026
Real Salt Lake
- D1-1Minnesota United FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to St. Louis City2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC23 July 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC23 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 25 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Colorado Rapids carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.49 for Real Salt Lake. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Colorado Rapids L-W-L-W-W; Real Salt Lake D-L-L-D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Colorado Rapids and 1.16 for Real Salt Lake. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Colorado Rapids rate 0.53 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Salt Lake rate 0.67 and 1.38.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Real Salt Lake, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Colorado Rapids a 0% chance of the title and Real Salt Lake 0.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colorado Rapids the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Colorado Rapids against 1.16 for Real Salt Lake. Colorado Rapids's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.38 for Real Salt Lake.