San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 3-1 Los Angeles Galaxy.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% San Diego, 24% draw, 18% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Diego at 58% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1dos Santos CJG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5K. Sargeant
- 20A. GodoyM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 8O. ValakariF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 3D. ThorhallssonD
- 25I. PilcherD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 9L. MorganF
- 70A. Alvarado JrF
- 19D. VazquezM
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 77A. MightenF
- 1N. MicovicG
- 26H. MillerD
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 3J. AudeD
- 15J. HaakM
- 16I. ParenteM
- 28J. PaintsilM
- 18M. ReusM
- 11H. LozanoM
- 7K. FuruhashiF
- 41S. ConlonG
- 14J. NelsonD
- 25C. GarcesD
- 27E. ThommyM
- 24R. RamosF
- 6S. RobertoM
- 88M. VanneyM
- 76T. ElgersmaM
- 21R. TaylorM
Form going into San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy
San Diego
- W3-0Colorado Rapids23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Portland Timbers20 August 2026
- W1-0away to Los Angeles FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
- D2-2away to CF Montreal22 August 2026
- W1-0San Jose Earthquakes20 August 2026
- L0-1away to Houston Dynamo16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Dallas2 August 2026
- D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes26 July 2026
What these results say
- San Diego scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San Diego | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- 24 May 2025San Diego 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 24 February 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Diego and Los Angeles Galaxy
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen12 goals3 assists
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.