San Diego
vs
Los Angeles Galaxy
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 63% San Diego, 20% draw, 17% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 1.59, 5.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: San Diego 2.27, Los Angeles Galaxy 1.10.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
San Diego
- W1-0away to Los Angeles FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
- L2-4Vancouver Whitecaps24 May 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
- L0-1away to Houston Dynamo16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Dallas2 August 2026
- D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes26 July 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City23 July 2026
- L0-3Los Angeles FC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San Diego | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 29 | +4 | 24 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen11 goals2 assists
Los Angeles Galaxy
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
San Diego carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.35 for Los Angeles Galaxy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): San Diego L-L-W-D-W; Los Angeles Galaxy L-L-D-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for San Diego and 1.10 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Diego rate 0.65 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.67 and 1.85.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives San Diego a 0.1% chance of the title and Los Angeles Galaxy 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Diego the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for San Diego against 1.1 for Los Angeles Galaxy. San Diego's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.85 for Los Angeles Galaxy.