Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 0-3 Vancouver Whitecaps.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Sporting Kansas City, 28% draw, 39% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 3M. MosqueraD
- 5O. BlorianD
- 18E. KaricD
- 7CapitaM
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 16J. BartlettM
- 14C. HarrisM
- 93S. SuleymanovF
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 1J. PulskampG
- 15J. MillerD
- 57Diego BorgesD
- 99J. ReidD
- 2I. JamesD
- 28W. MeyerD
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 11Andre LuizF
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18E. OcampoD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 8O. LarrazM
- 20A. CubasM
- 25R. GauldM
- 13T. MullerM
- 14B. CaicedoM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 3S. AdekugbeD
- 41N. DjordjevicD
- 26J. NgandoM
- 59J. BadwalM
- 11E. SabbiF
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 7C. SabalyF
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC23 August 2026
- D1-1St. Louis City20 August 2026
- L0-2away to Colorado Rapids16 August 2026
- L0-2Houston Dynamo2 August 2026
- L0-4away to Los Angeles FC26 July 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
- W5-0FC Dallas23 August 2026
- L0-1Houston Dynamo20 August 2026
- W2-0away to Seattle Sounders17 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles FC1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Minnesota United FC26 July 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Kansas City did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 65 | -33 | 21 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 59 | 26 | +33 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 18 April 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2025Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 27 July 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 18 July 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 30 May 2024Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 2 July 2023Sporting Kansas City 3–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Vancouver Whitecaps
- B. White17 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.