Nashville SC
vs
FC Cincinnati
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 42% Nashville SC, 24% draw, 34% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nashville SC 1.73, FC Cincinnati 1.56.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Nashville SC
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Cincinnati
- K. Denkey11 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nashville SC carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.61 for FC Cincinnati. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Nashville SC W-W-L-D-W; FC Cincinnati W-W-L-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Nashville SC and 1.56 for FC Cincinnati. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nashville SC rate 0.57 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Cincinnati rate 0.95 and 1.61.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Nashville SC against 1.56 for FC Cincinnati. Nashville SC's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.61 for FC Cincinnati.