30 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction & result

Geodis Park, Nashville
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Nashville SC 4-0 FC Cincinnati.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Nashville SC, 26% draw, 26% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Nashville SC at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nashville SC99%Draw1%FC Cincinnati0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Surridgeassist: C. Espinoza
43'
44'
Obinna Nwobodo
46'
🔁K. Mbomaout: A. Jabbari
46'
🔁O. Nwobodoout: B. J. Ramirez Leon
Andy Najar
49'
⚽H. Mukhtarassist: E. Saad
53'
🔁P. Yazbekout: M. Corcoran
62'
66'
🔁S. Gidiout: K. Smith
Jeisson Palacios
70'
73'
🔁G. Valenzuelaout: T. Barlow
Edvard Tagseth
79'
🔁A. Najarout: D. Lovitz
87'
🔁E. Tagsethout: B. Acosta
87'
🔁C. Espinozaout: S. Mohammed
87'
87'
🔁E. Echeniqueout: A. Powell
89'
Bryan Ramirez
⚽B. Acostaassist: H. Mukhtar
89'
🔁H. Mukhtarout: A. Qasem
90+5'
🔁E. Saadout: A. Muyl
90+4'
90+1'
🔁Evanderout: T. Anunga
⚽A. Qasemassist: R. Baker-Whiting
90'

Match stats — Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati

52%Possession48%
19Shots15
7On target8
6Corners4
1.8xG1.93

Goals against chances

Nashville SC4 from 1.80 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Cincinnati0 from 1.93 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nashville SC 4-4-2
  • 99B. SchwakeG
  • 31A. NajarD
  • 4J. PalaciosD
  • 3M. WoledziD
  • 27R. Baker-WhitingD
  • 7C. EspinozaM
  • 8P. YazbekM
  • 20E. TagsethM
  • 11E. SaadM
  • 10H. MukhtarF
  • 9S. SurridgeF
Substitutes
  • 1J. WillisG
  • 5J. MaherD
  • 22J. BauerD
  • 2D. LovitzD
  • 6B. AcostaM
  • 16M. CorcoranM
  • 37A. QasemF
  • 14S. MohammedM
  • 19A. MuylM
Coach: Brian Callaghan
FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
  • 18R. CelentanoG
  • 11S. GidiD
  • 21M. MiazgaD
  • 12M. RobinsonD
  • 20P. BuchaM
  • 5O. NwobodoM
  • 22G. ValenzuelaM
  • 66E. EcheniqueM
  • 17K. MbomaF
  • 9K. DenkeyF
  • 10EvanderF
Substitutes
  • 13E. LouroG
  • 4N. HagglundD
  • 15T. HadebeD
  • 2A. PowellD
  • 24K. SmithD
  • 27T. AnungaM
  • 99A. JabbariF
  • 29B. J. Ramirez LeonD
  • 16T. BarlowF
Coach: Pat Noonan

Form going into Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati

Nashville SC

  • W3-2Columbus Crew23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to New York Red Bulls19 August 2026
  • W4-1Inter Miami16 August 2026
  • D2-2away to DC United1 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Orlando City SC25 July 2026

FC Cincinnati

  • D1-1Seattle Sounders22 August 2026
  • W2-1New York City FC19 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Orlando City SC15 August 2026
  • W4-2San Jose Earthquakes1 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Columbus Crew25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Nashville SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Nashville SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Cincinnati scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Nashville SC2718635521+3460
10FC Cincinnati268995564-933

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati

  • 13 September 2025FC Cincinnati 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 30 March 2025Nashville SC 1–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 22 September 2024Nashville SC 2–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 29 May 2024FC Cincinnati 0–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 5 August 2023FC Cincinnati 1–1 Nashville SCLeagues Cup
  • 15 July 2023FC Cincinnati 3–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Nashville SC and FC Cincinnati

Nashville SC

  • S. Surridge16 goals1 assist
  • H. Mukhtar13 goals6 assists

FC Cincinnati

  • K. Denkey14 goals3 assists
  • Evander12 goals8 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.