30 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Allianz Field, Saint Paul
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Minnesota United FC 3-3 Orlando City SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Minnesota United FC, 26% draw, 32% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Minnesota United FC at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Minnesota United FC96%Draw4%Orlando City SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽D. Dike
Anthony Markanich
31'
🔁D. Callenderout: A. Smir
46'
53'
Antoine Griezmann
59'
🔁J. Gerbetout: Luis Otavio
59'
🔁D. Dikeout: H. Sarajian
64'
⚽A. Griezmannassist: J. Ellis
Michael Boxall
66'
⚽M. Caldeiraassist: K. Yeboah
71'
🔁M. Caldeiraout: N. Triantis
72'
🔁W. Trappout: M. Gonzalez
72'
73'
🔁J. Ellisout: T. Spicer
⚽A. Markanichassist: J. Pereyra
74'
⚽K. Yeboah
75'
81'
🔁Z. Taifiout: M. Ojeda
81'
🔁E. Atuestaout: M. Pasalic
🔁K. Yeboahout: T. Chancalay
85'
90+2'
Marco Pašalić
🔁J. Pereyraout: C. Harvey
90+2'
90'
⚽T. Spicerassist: A. Griezmann

Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC

43%Possession57%
21Shots6
9On target5
8Corners1
3.58xG1.25

Goals against chances

Minnesota United FC3 from 3.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Orlando City SC3 from 1.25 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Minnesota United FC 3-4-1-2
  • 12D. CallenderG
  • 28J. DiazD
  • 15M. BoxallD
  • 23M. DugganD
  • 3K. DuncanM
  • 30O. GeneM
  • 20W. TrappM
  • 13A. MarkanichM
  • 26J. PereyraF
  • 22M. CaldeiraF
  • 9K. YeboahF
Substitutes
  • 1A. SmirG
  • 5N. RomeroD
  • 2D. PadelfordD
  • 67C. HarveyM
  • 16A. JacksonM
  • 25N. TriantisD
  • 8T. ChancalayF
  • 18M. GonzalezF
  • 29M. DiengF
Coach: Cameron Knowles
Orlando City SC 4-4-2
  • 71M. CrepeauG
  • 24G. DorseyD
  • 4D. BrekaloD
  • 6R. JanssonD
  • 19Z. TaifiD
  • 22J. EllisM
  • 20E. AtuestaM
  • 35J. GerbetM
  • 77I. AnguloM
  • 9D. DikeF
  • 7A. GriezmannF
Substitutes
  • 12J. OteroG
  • 57Iago TeodoroD
  • 16W. CartagenaM
  • 10M. OjedaM
  • 5Luis OtavioM
  • 87M. PasalicF
  • 11TiagoF
  • 14T. SpicerF
  • 23H. SarajianF
Coach: Oscar Pareja

Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC

Minnesota United FC

  • W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
  • L1-2Atlanta United FC20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026
  • D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
  • D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026

Orlando City SC

  • W2-1Real Salt Lake22 August 2026
  • L1-2Chicago Fire19 August 2026
  • D1-1FC Cincinnati15 August 2026
  • L2-3away to New York Red Bulls1 August 2026
  • W1-0Nashville SC25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Minnesota United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Orlando City SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Minnesota United FC2778124049-929
7Orlando City SC27104134864-1634

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC

  • 10 March 2024Orlando City SC 2–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 16 April 2023Minnesota United FC 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 1 February 2023Orlando City SC 2–0 Minnesota United FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 April 2021Orlando City SC 3–2 Minnesota United FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 August 2020Orlando City SC 3–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 18 August 2019Minnesota United FC 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Orlando City SC

Minnesota United FC

  • K. Yeboah14 goals2 assists

Orlando City SC

  • M. Ojeda13 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.