Minnesota United FC
vs
Orlando City SC
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 44% Minnesota United FC, 27% draw, 29% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 1.48, Orlando City SC 1.17.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Minnesota United FC
- D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026
- D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Kansas City23 July 2026
- D1-1Real Salt Lake23 May 2026
Orlando City SC
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers
Minnesota United FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Orlando City SC
- M. Ojeda11 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Minnesota United FC carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.55 for Orlando City SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Minnesota United FC D-L-D-D-D; Orlando City SC L-W-W-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.17 for Orlando City SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Minnesota United FC rate 0.63 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orlando City SC rate 0.68 and 1.24.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Minnesota United FC the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Minnesota United FC against 1.17 for Orlando City SC. Minnesota United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.24 for Orlando City SC.