Seattle Sounders vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Seattle Sounders 1-2 Austin.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Seattle Sounders, 23% draw, 19% Austin — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Seattle Sounders at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Austin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26A. ThomasG
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
- 20Kim Kee-HeeD
- 25J. RagenD
- 5NouhouD
- 16A. RoldanM
- 45P. KingstonM
- 90S. GomezM
- 11A. RusnakM
- 14P. RothrockM
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 24S. FreiG
- 35A. LopezD
- 4R. SailorD
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 84C. GaffneyM
- 32X. GnaulatiM
- 37S. BrunellM
- 95O. De RosarioF
- 42R. JaureguiM
- 12D. LasG
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 15J. BellD
- 23Z. KolmanicD
- 77P. PlachetaM
- 6I. SanchezM
- 24J. AlastueyM
- 19C. FodreyM
- 11F. TorresF
- 7J. NelsonF
- 9B. VazquezF
- 1B. StuverG
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 2R. Thomas
- 3M. DeslerD
- 35M. DjordjevicD
- 32M. BurtonM
- 14B. SabovicM
- 38E. TorresM
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Austin
Seattle Sounders
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Vancouver Whitecaps17 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Philadelphia Union25 July 2026
- L1-3away to Austin23 July 2026
- L1-5Portland Timbers17 July 2026
Austin
All competitions we cover
- L1-2FC Dallas17 August 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids2 August 2026
- L0-3away to Houston Dynamo26 July 2026
- W3-1Seattle Sounders23 July 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Austin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Austin failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Austin had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 46 |
| 14 | Austin | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 65 | -23 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Austin
- 23 July 2026Austin 3–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2025Austin 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025Seattle Sounders 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024Austin 0–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 3 March 2024Seattle Sounders 0–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
Austin won 2–1 at Seattle Sounders. The model had leaned towards a win for Seattle Sounders at 58% and given a win for Austin 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: F. Torres 66' for Austin, Guilherme Biro 87' for Austin, S. Hawkins 90' for Seattle Sounders. On expected goals it finished 1.25–1.18.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.