Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Real Salt Lake 3-4 FC Dallas.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Real Salt Lake, 22% draw, 20% FC Dallas — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Salt Lake at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 26P. QuintonD
- 21J. J. AriasD
- 4L. EngelD
- 2D. YedlinM
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 92N. CaliskanM
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 9M. GuilavoguiF
- 10D. LunaF
- 22S. SolansF
- 31M. StajduharG
- 98A. KatranisD
- 3K. HenryD
- 29S. JunquaD
- 7P. RuizM
- 39A. HezarkhaniF
- 12S. LobjanidzeM
- 17V. OlatunjiF
- 70Lineker RodriguesF
- 40J. SiroisG
- 18S. MooreD
- 3O. UrhoghideD
- 32N. NorrisD
- 14H. JohanssonM
- 55KaickM
- 17RamiroM
- 77B. KamungoM
- 21J. ValienteF
- 10S. MorenoF
- 9P. MusaF
- 30M. CollodiG
- 25S. IbeaghaD
- 5L. AbubakarD
- 12C. CappisM
- 8P. DelgadoM
- 6R. BinyaminM
- 33C. HolstadM
- 28S. SarverF
- 23L. FarringtonF
Form going into Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas
Real Salt Lake
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Minnesota United FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to St. Louis City2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC23 July 2026
FC Dallas
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Austin17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy2 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Diego26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers23 July 2026
What these results say
- Real Salt Lake did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Real Salt Lake scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Dallas failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Dallas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 53 | 52 | +1 | 45 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 62 | 51 | +11 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas
- 10 May 2026FC Dallas 3–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 30 January 2026Real Salt Lake 0–2 FC DallasThe Atlantic Cup
- 11 May 2025FC Dallas 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2025Real Salt Lake 0–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 19 September 2024Real Salt Lake 3–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas
Real Salt Lake
GoalsAssists
- S. Solans154
FC Dallas
GoalsAssists
- P. Musa225
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Dallas won 4–3 at Real Salt Lake. The model had leaned towards a win for Real Salt Lake at 58% and given a win for FC Dallas 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: J. Valiente 16' for FC Dallas, P. Musa 20' for FC Dallas, S. Solans 38' for Real Salt Lake, P. Musa 45' for FC Dallas, M. Guilavogui 50' for Real Salt Lake, D. Luna 64' for Real Salt Lake, R. Binyamin 90' for FC Dallas. On expected goals it finished 1.67–1.92.