Real Salt Lake
vs
FC Dallas
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 49% Real Salt Lake, 24% draw, 27% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.84, FC Dallas 1.34.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Real Salt Lake
- D1-1away to St. Louis City2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC23 July 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC23 May 2026
- W2-1Colorado Rapids17 May 2026
FC Dallas
- D0-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy2 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Diego26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers23 July 2026
- W2-1away to Colorado Rapids24 May 2026
- W3-2away to San Jose Earthquakes17 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 27 |
| 6 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Real Salt Lake
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Dallas
- P. Musa13 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Salt Lake carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.46 for FC Dallas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Real Salt Lake W-D-L-L-D; FC Dallas W-W-D-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.34 for FC Dallas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Salt Lake rate 0.67 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Dallas rate 0.67 and 1.45.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Salt Lake a 0.7% chance of the title and FC Dallas 0.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Salt Lake the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Real Salt Lake against 1.34 for FC Dallas. Real Salt Lake's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.45 for FC Dallas.