Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Universitatea Craiova 4-0 Petrolul Ploiesti.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Universitatea Craiova, 19% draw, 14% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 67% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Line-ups
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Universitatea Craiova
- D2-2Levski Sofia29 July 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Levski Sofia22 July 2026
- W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
- L0-1away to Arges Pitesti24 July 2026
- W1-0Dinamo Bucuresti19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 17 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti
- 1 August 2026Universitatea Craiova 4–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 19 January 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 0–4 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 4 December 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–4 Universitatea CraiovaCupa României
- 24 August 2025Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 7 December 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 4 December 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 0–2 Universitatea CraiovaCupa României
Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and Petrolul Ploiesti
Universitatea Craiova
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Petrolul Ploiesti
- B. Malula3 goals
- D. Nlundulu3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.