Liga I · Regular Season - 3 · 1 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova

The model makes it 67% Universitatea Craiova, 19% draw, 14% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 2.25, Petrolul Ploiesti 0.93.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

55%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 11%2-1 10%1-1 9%

Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti

  • 19 January 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 0–4 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
  • 4 December 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–4 Universitatea CraiovaCupa României
  • 24 August 2025Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
  • 7 December 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
  • 4 December 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 0–2 Universitatea CraiovaCupa României
  • 4 August 2024Universitatea Craiova 0–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.93 for Petrolul Ploiesti. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.95 for Petrolul Ploiesti.