Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Universitatea Craiova 4-0 Petrolul Ploiesti.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Universitatea Craiova, 19% draw, 14% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 67% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Line-ups
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Universitatea Craiova
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Levski Sofia29 July 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Levski Sofia22 July 2026
- W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Arges Pitesti24 July 2026
- W1-0Dinamo Bucuresti19 July 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Craiova failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universitatea Craiova | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 9 | +23 | 29 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti
- 19 January 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 0–4 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 4 December 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–4 Universitatea CraiovaCupa României
- 24 August 2025Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 7 December 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 4 December 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 0–2 Universitatea CraiovaCupa României
Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and Petrolul Ploiesti
Universitatea Craiova
GoalsAssists
- S. Elisor90
- A. Al Hamlawi60
- S. Nsimba40
Petrolul Ploiesti
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Martins42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Universitatea Craiova beat Petrolul Ploiesti 4–0. The model had made a win for Universitatea Craiova its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: S. Nsimba 1' for Universitatea Craiova, S. Nsimba 18' for Universitatea Craiova, S. Baiaram 48' for Universitatea Craiova, S. Elisor 65' for Universitatea Craiova.