Willem II
vs
Heerenveen
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 40% Willem II, 23% draw, 37% Heerenveen — fair odds of 2.50, 4.35 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Willem II 1.83, Heerenveen 1.76.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Willem II
- L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
- L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026
Heerenveen
- W1-0Twente9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Willem II vs Heerenveen
- 4 April 2025Heerenveen 3–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 8 December 2024Willem II 1–2 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 5 March 2022Willem II 0–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 21 November 2021Heerenveen 2–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 13 March 2021Willem II 3–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 12 September 2020Heerenveen 2–0 Willem IIEredivisie
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Willem II carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.63 for Heerenveen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Willem II L-L; Heerenveen W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Willem II and 1.76 for Heerenveen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Willem II rate 0.78 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heerenveen rate 0.80 and 1.24.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Heerenveen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Willem II the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Willem II against 1.76 for Heerenveen. Willem II's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.24 for Heerenveen.