Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv First League prediction & result
Final score: Arda Kardzhali 2-3 Botev Plovdiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Arda Kardzhali, 28% draw, 24% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arda Kardzhali at 48% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1A. GospodinovG
- 6V. PopovD
- 44A. TraoreD
- 5V. LyubenovD
- 21V. VelevD
- 10S. KovachevM
- 80L. KotevM
- 8D. YankovM
- 99B. KaragarenM
- 91S. IvanovM
- 16P. BachevF
- 4D. IdowuM
- 9G. Nikolov
- 11A. Kabov
- 18S. VasilevD
- 22Y. GeorgievG
- 24M. PaskalevD
- 26B. AkandzhaM
- 35D. VelkovskiD
- 39A. VutovM
- 29D. NaumovG
- 82V. MendesD
- 87S. PetrovD
- 4N. SoldoD
- 27B. HeinD
- 77Lucas AraujoM
- 10A. ChandarovM
- 66C. MeottiM
- 19M. RodriguesM
- 90S. KaluM
- 13S. TsonovF
- 1H. Slavkov
- 15B. KostovD
- 20T. AwanyD
- 22M. SengerD
- 16V. Vidolov
- 7N. Iliev
- 23D. TonevM
- 28H. JocuM
- 88W. ChimezieF
Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
- W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv24 August 2026
Botev Plovdiv
- L1-3Levski Sofia30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Vratsa24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv
- 4 September 2026Arda Kardzhali 0–3 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 26 June 2026Botev Plovdiv 2–1 Arda KardzhaliFriendlies Clubs
- 12 May 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 26 April 2026Arda Kardzhali 0–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 2 December 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 4 August 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–5 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.