Arda Kardzhali
vs
Botev Plovdiv
First League prediction
The model makes it 62% Arda Kardzhali, 19% draw, 19% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Arda Kardzhali 2.51, Botev Plovdiv 1.34.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Arda Kardzhali
- W3-1Lokomotiv Sofia17 August 2026
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194831 July 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia24 July 2026
- D1-1away to Septemvri Sofia18 July 2026
Botev Plovdiv
- L0-2away to Ludogorets15 August 2026
- W3-2Spartak Varna10 August 2026
- W1-0Cherno More Varna1 August 2026
- L2-3away to CSKA Sofia27 July 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv
- 26 June 2026Botev Plovdiv 2–1 Arda KardzhaliFriendlies Clubs
- 12 May 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 26 April 2026Arda Kardzhali 0–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 2 December 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 4 August 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–5 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 9 March 2025Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arda Kardzhali carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.31 for Botev Plovdiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Arda Kardzhali D-W-L-W-W; Botev Plovdiv D-L-W-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.51 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 1.34 for Botev Plovdiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arda Kardzhali rate 0.60 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Plovdiv rate 0.71 and 2.21.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arda Kardzhali the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Arda Kardzhali against 1.34 for Botev Plovdiv. Arda Kardzhali's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/2.21 for Botev Plovdiv.