Ajax
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 31% Ajax, 25% draw, 44% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ajax 1.33, PSV Eindhoven 1.63.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ajax
- D2-2Heerenveen16 August 2026
- W2-0away to PEC Zwolle9 August 2026
PSV Eindhoven
- W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Sittard8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 6 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven
- 2 May 2026Ajax 2–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 21 September 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 30 March 2025PSV Eindhoven 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 2 November 2024Ajax 3–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 3 February 2024Ajax 1–1 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 29 October 2023PSV Eindhoven 5–2 AjaxEredivisie
The two sides
Ajax carry a model rating of 6.8 against 7.04 for PSV Eindhoven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ajax W-D; PSV Eindhoven D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Ajax and 1.63 for PSV Eindhoven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ajax rate 0.81 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PSV Eindhoven rate 1.28 and 0.87.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ajax, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ajax against 1.63 for PSV Eindhoven. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 0.81/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.28/0.87 for PSV Eindhoven.