Sparta Rotterdam
vs
Fortuna Sittard
KNVB Beker prediction
Our model says: Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 Fortuna Sittard
The model makes it 39% Sparta Rotterdam, 27% draw, 34% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.50, Fortuna Sittard 1.36.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Sparta Rotterdam are 14th on 6 points from 8 games; Fortuna Sittard are 7th on 14 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Sparta Rotterdam have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to GO Ahead Eagles.
- Fortuna Sittard have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Twente.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Fortuna Sittard 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Chance to go through
KNVB Beker Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Sparta Rotterdam40%
- Level after ninety minutes26%
- Fortuna Sittard34%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More KNVB Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Rotterdam at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard
Sparta Rotterdam
- D3-3away to GO Ahead Eagles10 October 2026
- L0-4Heerenveen19 September 2026
- L1-4away to PSV Eindhoven13 September 2026
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
Fortuna Sittard
- D1-1Twente10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Willem II19 September 2026
- L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
What these results say
- Sparta Rotterdam did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
- Fortuna Sittard scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Sittard.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 6 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard
- 7 February 2026Fortuna Sittard 2–2 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 22 November 2025Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 29 March 2025Fortuna Sittard 0–3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 28 September 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 30 March 2024Sparta Rotterdam 4–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 13 January 2024Fortuna Sittard 0–2 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld51
Fortuna Sittard
GoalsAssists
- M. Ihattaren33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sparta Rotterdam carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.63 for Fortuna Sittard. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.36 for Fortuna Sittard. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sparta Rotterdam rate 0.74 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Sittard rate 0.80 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Rotterdam the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.36 for Fortuna Sittard. Sparta Rotterdam's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.25 for Fortuna Sittard.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sparta Rotterdam at home · Fortuna Sittard away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Sparta Rotterdam 8, Fortuna Sittard 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sparta Rotterdam
- at Groningen1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 19%
- at ADO Den Haag7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- vs AZ Alkmaar22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 23%
- at Cambuur28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
Fortuna Sittard
- at Feyenoord31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 12%
- vs Telstar7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 45%
- at GO Ahead Eagles22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 27%
- vs Heerenveen29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.