PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PEC Zwolle 0-2 Ajax.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% PEC Zwolle, 22% draw, 47% Ajax — fair odds of 3.23, 4.55 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Ajax at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jasper SchendelaarG
- 3Olivier AertssenD
- 28Simon GravesD
- 24Nick ViergeverD
- 2Sherel Constancio FloranusD
- 8Tobias SommerM
- 30Ryan ThomasM
- 11Dylan MbayoM
- 25Thijs OostingM
- 22Ibrahim CissokoM
- 10Koen KostonsF
- 33Damian van der HaarD
- 20Gabriel ReizigerM
- 4Tijs VelthuisD
- 9Elias SørensenF
- 18Odysseus VelanasM
- 16Tom de GraaffG
- 41Duke VerduinG
- 42Dylan RuwardD
- 37Gilles van der WalM
- 1Marc-André Ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 30Aaron BouwmanD
- 15Youri BaasD
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 18Davy KlaassenM
- 6Youri RegeerM
- 10Oscar GloukhM
- 23Steven BerghuisF
- 9Kasper DolbergF
- 68Abdellah OuazaneF
- 24Jorthy MokioM
- 11Mika GodtsF
- 8Julian BrandtM
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 99Tolu ArokodareF
- 26Maarten PaesG
- 22Joeri HeerkensG
- 17Daley BlindD
- 3Anton GaaeiD
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
PEC Zwolle
No earlier matches on record this season.
Ajax
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Shelbourne6 August 2026
- W4-1Vojvodina30 July 2026
- W4-1away to Vojvodina23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
- 1 March 2026PEC Zwolle 0–0 AjaxEredivisie
- 13 September 2025Ajax 3–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 9 March 2025PEC Zwolle 0–1 AjaxEredivisie
- 24 November 2024Ajax 2–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 5 July 2024Ajax 0–1 PEC ZwolleFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and Ajax
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare71
- J. Brandt62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ajax won 2–0 at PEC Zwolle. The model had made a win for Ajax its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Mokio 76' for Ajax, J. Brandt 90+5' for Ajax. Sent off: S. Floranus (PEC Zwolle) 57'. On expected goals it finished 0.59–1.54.