Heerenveen vs Twente Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Heerenveen 1-0 Twente.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Heerenveen, 22% draw, 45% Twente — fair odds of 3.03, 4.55 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Twente at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heerenveen vs Twente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Bernt KlaverboerG
- 15Mats EgbringD
- 4Sam KerstenD
- 3Maas WillemsenD
- 19Vasilios ZagaritisD
- 6Dirk Wanner ProperM
- 20Jacob TrenskowM
- 16Marcus LindayM
- 10Ringo MeerveldM
- 29Lanroy MachineM
- 9Dylan VenteF
- 11Luca OyenF
- 36Nolhan CourtensM
- 28Hristiyan PetrovD
- 17Nikolai Soyset HoplandD
- 23Darling BladiD
- 44Andries NoppertG
- 30Timo SchreuderG
- 41Jimte ScholtenD
- 7Maxence RiveraM
- 1Lars UnnerstallG
- 28Bart van RooijD
- 38Max BrunsD
- 3Robin PröpperD
- 29Aske AdelgaardD
- 6Ramiz ZerroukiM
- 20Thomas Van den BeltM
- 7Marko PjacaM
- 11Daan RotsM
- 27Sondre ØrjasæterM
- 9Wout WeghorstF
- 19Younes TahaF
- 4Mathias KjøløM
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 14Kristian HlynssonM
- 10Sam LammersF
- 22Remko PasveerG
- 16Joël DrommelG
- 43Ruud NijstadD
- 24Krzysztof KurowskiD
Form going into Heerenveen vs Twente
Heerenveen
No earlier matches on record this season.
Twente
All competitions we cover
- W6-0Dunajska Streda6 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC30 July 2026
- L1-2Ferencvarosi TC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs Twente
- 7 February 2026Twente 5–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 24 August 2025Heerenveen 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 9 February 2025Heerenveen 3–3 TwenteEredivisie
- 17 September 2024Twente 2–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 3 April 2024Heerenveen 3–3 TwenteEredivisie
Leading scorers: Heerenveen and Twente
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow63
- R. Meerveld51
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Heerenveen beat Twente 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Twente at 45% and given a win for Heerenveen 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: L. Oyen 52' for Heerenveen. On expected goals it finished 0.39–1.73.