Heerenveen
vs
Twente
The model makes it 33% Heerenveen, 22% draw, 45% Twente — fair odds of 3.03, 4.55 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.69, Twente 2.01.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs Twente
- 7 February 2026Twente 5–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 24 August 2025Heerenveen 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 9 February 2025Heerenveen 3–3 TwenteEredivisie
- 17 September 2024Twente 2–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 3 April 2024Heerenveen 3–3 TwenteEredivisie
- 30 September 2023Twente 1–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
The two sides
Heerenveen carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.84 for Twente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Twente L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Heerenveen and 2.01 for Twente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heerenveen rate 0.83 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Twente rate 1.05 and 1.08.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Heerenveen against 2.01 for Twente. Heerenveen's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.08 for Twente.