Sparta Praha
vs
Teplice
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 52% Sparta Praha, 24% draw, 24% Teplice — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.88, Teplice 1.22.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sparta Praha
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav8 August 2026
- W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
- L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026
Teplice
- D5-5Plzen8 August 2026
- W1-0away to Slovan Liberec1 August 2026
- W3-1Bohemians 190525 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Teplice | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Sparta Praha
No league goals recorded yet.
Teplice
- L. Mareček2 goals1 assists
- M. Pulkrab2 goals
- John Auta2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sparta Praha carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.63 for Teplice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Sparta Praha L-W-L; Teplice W-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Sparta Praha and 1.22 for Teplice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sparta Praha rate 0.77 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Teplice rate 0.83 and 1.29.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Teplice, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sparta Praha against 1.22 for Teplice. Sparta Praha's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.29 for Teplice.