Slovan Liberec
vs
Slavia Praha
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 18% Slovan Liberec, 19% draw, 63% Slavia Praha — fair odds of 5.56, 5.26 and 1.59. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Slovan Liberec 1.33, Slavia Praha 2.51.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Slovan Liberec
- W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno7 August 2026
- L0-1Teplice1 August 2026
- W3-1away to Plzen25 July 2026
Slavia Praha
- W2-1Pardubice9 August 2026
- W4-0away to Baník Ostrava1 August 2026
- W5-1Slovácko26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Slovan Liberec | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Slovan Liberec
- P. Dulay2 goals1 assists
Slavia Praha
- W. Nowak3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slovan Liberec carry a model rating of 6.66 against 7.13 for Slavia Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Slovan Liberec W-L-W; Slavia Praha W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Slovan Liberec and 2.51 for Slavia Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slovan Liberec rate 0.89 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Praha rate 1.37 and 0.79.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Slovan Liberec against 2.51 for Slavia Praha. Slovan Liberec's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.37/0.79 for Slavia Praha.