Sochaux
vs
Nantes
Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Sochaux 1-0 Nantes.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Sochaux, 30% draw, 41% Nantes — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sochaux 1.06, Nantes 1.49.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sochaux vs Nantes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nantes at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sochaux vs Nantes
Sochaux
- D1-1away to PAU4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot28 August 2026
- W1-0Guingamp21 August 2026
- D0-0away to RED Star FC 9314 August 2026
Nantes
- W1-0Nancy7 September 2026
- D3-3away to Guingamp29 August 2026
- L2-5Rodez22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Laval14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sochaux | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Nantes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sochaux vs Nantes
- 18 December 2021Sochaux 0–0 NantesCoupe de France
- 2 March 2016Sochaux 3–2 NantesCoupe de France
- 1 February 2014Sochaux 1–0 NantesLigue 1
- 14 September 2013Nantes 1–0 SochauxLigue 1
Leading scorers: Sochaux and Nantes
Sochaux
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Nantes
- W. Younoussa2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Sochaux carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.75 for Nantes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Sochaux and 1.49 for Nantes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sochaux rate 0.59 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nantes rate 0.90 and 1.10.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sochaux, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sochaux a 0.1% chance of the title and Nantes 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nantes the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sochaux against 1.49 for Nantes. Sochaux's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.1 for Nantes.