11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Rodez vs Grenoble Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez
Full time0 1

Final score: Rodez 0-1 Grenoble.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Rodez, 29% draw, 32% Grenoble — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rodez at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rodez0%Draw5%Grenoble95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Matthéo Xantippeassist: Baptiste Mouazan
42'
Jean-Guy Akpa Akpro
45+3'
Clement Vidal
60'
🔁Baptiste Mouazanout: Yvann Macon
🔁Kelian Nsonaout: Mathis Touho
66'
🔁Damjan Pavlovićout: Mathis Saka
66'
74'
🔁Ugo Bonnetout: Kyliann Fofana
74'
🔁Lucas Bernadouout: Mael Corboz
75'
Samba Lele Diba
🔁Corentin Issanchou Roubiouout: Nachon Nsingi
77'
🔁Ryan Pontiout: Jean Lambert Evan's
77'
86'
🔁Matthéo Xantippeout: Christ-Owen Kouassi
86'
🔁Jean-Guy Akpa Akproout: Moussa Djitté
🔁Antonin Cartillierout: Marco Essimi
87'
87'
Yvann Macon

Match stats — Rodez vs Grenoble

57%Possession43%
22Shots3
8On target1
10Corners1

Line-ups

Rodez 5-3-2
  • 16L. MargueronG
  • 13C. RoubiouD
  • 24L. QuenabioD
  • 4M. MagninD
  • 3R. LipinskiD
  • 20R. PontiD
  • 6J. MendesM
  • 8D. PavlovićM
  • 29Antonin CartillierM
  • 7K. NageraF
  • 21K. NsonaF
Substitutes
  • 10M. SakaM
  • 11M. TouhoF
  • 17L. Vungele VangiD
  • 30E. CrombezG
  • 27M. Essimi AtebaF
  • 15E. Jean-LambertD
  • 22O. JolyM
  • 28S. Luyambula BiwaD
  • 9N. NsingiF
Coach: D. Santini
Grenoble 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. OllieroG
  • 19N. ZahuiD
  • 43A. PelonD
  • 5C. VidalD
  • 27M. XantippeD
  • 6Y. MagninM
  • 92J. Akpa AkproM
  • 30S. DibaM
  • 8L. BernadouM
  • 10B. MouazanM
  • 12U. BonnetF
Substitutes
  • 23D. HoogewerfF
  • 14M. CorbozM
  • 2M. DjittéF
  • 47K. FofanaF
  • 21Owen KouassiD
  • 97Y. MaçonD
  • 46J. MoutonD
  • 16B. AllainG
  • 48S. NiakatéD
Coach: O. Frapolli

Form going into Rodez vs Grenoble

Rodez

  • L1-4away to Metz5 September 2026
  • D2-2PAU28 August 2026
  • W5-2away to Nantes22 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Annecy14 August 2026

Grenoble

  • L1-2Annecy4 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Laval28 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Saint Etienne22 August 2026
  • D0-0Metz14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Rodez62131112-17
12Grenoble6213710-37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rodez vs Grenoble

  • 6 March 2026Rodez 1–0 GrenobleLigue 2
  • 7 November 2025Grenoble 2–1 RodezLigue 2
  • 25 July 2025Grenoble 1–0 RodezFriendlies Clubs
  • 31 January 2025Grenoble 2–1 RodezLigue 2
  • 4 October 2024Rodez 2–1 GrenobleLigue 2
  • 19 July 2024Rodez 0–0 GrenobleFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Rodez and Grenoble

Rodez

  • I. Baldé5 goals
  • C. Roubiou2 goals
  • O. Joly2 goals

Grenoble

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.