Sochaux vs Boulogne Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Sochaux 1-1 Boulogne.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Sochaux, 36% draw, 25% Boulogne — fair odds of 2.56, 2.78 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sochaux at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sochaux vs Boulogne
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40M. JeanninG
- 26E. N'GattaD
- 4A. VitelliD
- 14M. PeybernesD
- 3D. GomisD
- 21B. DiawaraM
- 23J. MassonM
- 77L. NomelM
- 24Y. DemoncyM
- 7B. GomelM
- 9K. DjocoF
- 91M. ClairiciaF
- 5S. BaghdadiF
- 97S. AgouzoulD
- 11L. DeedsonF
- 25P. DiopM
- 10B. FofanaF
- 15J. MexiqueM
- 30A. PierreG
- 42Dylan TavaresD
- 99Blondy Rudolph Nna NoukeuG
- 15A. PinotD
- 25A. KerriouD
- 18D. ThiamD
- 8J. MartinM
- 14J. BultelM
- 19N. BinetM
- 11N. FatarM
- 36M. SoumahF
- 12J. BoyerF
- 10A. HbouchF
- 1X. LenogueG
- 26O. LenneD
- 20T. BruscoD
- 22S. DuflosD
- 7A. NassiriM
- 21A. PlatretD
- 9M. LecolierF
- 17B. BesicF
- 64T. EpaillyF
Form going into Sochaux vs Boulogne
Sochaux
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Laval18 September 2026
- W1-0Nantes12 September 2026
- D1-1away to PAU4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot28 August 2026
- W1-0Guingamp21 August 2026
Boulogne
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Nantes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot11 September 2026
- D1-1Dijon4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Montpellier28 August 2026
- D1-1RED Star FC 9321 August 2026
What these results say
- Sochaux went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sochaux had two goals or fewer.
- Sochaux scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Boulogne did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Boulogne had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Sochaux | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Boulogne | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sochaux vs Boulogne
- 2 May 2025Boulogne 2–3 SochauxLigue 3
- 10 January 2025Sochaux 1–1 BoulogneLigue 3
The result against the call
Sochaux and Boulogne drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sochaux at 39% and given a draw 36%. The goals: Benjamin Gomel 8' for Sochaux, Abdel Hbouch 75' for Boulogne. On expected goals it finished 0.83–1.20.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sochaux a 12.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.2% after a win, 13.9% after a draw, 17.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.9%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
For Boulogne the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 51.1% going in: 42.5% after a win, 51.1% after a draw, 56.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 51.1%.
Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.